75-76k is a short-term cost basis for the current 40-day rally holders, and also a minor support zone, but it is relatively weak.

If the price falls below 73k and is accompanied by the overall profit and loss ratio remaining below 0.95 for two consecutive days, a previous type of rapid decline and panic selling may occur, similar to a stampede.
Before that, there should be a period of consolidation and adjustment.
Speculation on the upcoming trend: there is a 50%+ probability that the price will test downward near 74-76k, then rebound to the 80-82k range, which is considered the baseline trend, because about 277k BTC are supported at 74-76k (the average cost basis of purchases made in the past 1-3 months).
After that, in the next 2-4 weeks, it is very unlikely for the price to directly break through 84k when rebounding to around 80-82k, because there is a pile-up of 1.27 million BTC (bought at high levels early 2026) above, making the trapped positions a strong resistance.

The optimistic scenario (25% probability) is a direct V-shaped rebound above 76k. If Putin's talks conclude tomorrow, and the US and Iran are willing to reach some compromise on new terms, and US institutional funds return, this scenario would depend on macro factors such as the US dollar index and Treasury yields falling to lift the pressure.

The pessimistic path (25% probability): a direct drop below 73k, losing support and accelerating down to 66-71k. This path is driven by macro systemic risks causing large-scale net outflows from spot ETFs, with long-term holders shifting from accumulation over the past few months to reducing their positions.
The reason the pessimistic probability isn't higher is that on-chain data shows long-term holders are still accumulating at historically high levels, with no signs of retreat, and the net increase in cold wallet balances has been the highest in nearly 30 days.