#TradFi交易分享挑战

Today Gold Price Trend Analysis

1. Market Trend

Overall Performance: International gold prices declined then slightly rebounded, with bears dominating the market.

Key Prices:

London Spot Gold quotes at $4,566-4,568 per ounce, a slight increase from the previous day;

COMEX Gold Futures main contract closed at $4,566 per ounce (up 0.07%), with a total decline of 3.09% over three consecutive days, hitting a new low since May 4.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

Trend Breakout:

Fell below the key support of $4,600 per ounce, forming a downward breakout on the 4-hour chart, confirming a bearish trend.

Momentum Indicators:

MACD: Daily chart shows a bearish alignment, selling pressure persists;

RSI: In the weak zone, not oversold (warning of further downside risk).

Volume Signals:

Gold ETFs (such as SPDR) recently reduced holdings slightly, indicating ongoing capital outflow pressure.

3. Fundamental Analysis

Crash Background:

Hawkish Fed Expectations Strengthen: US April CPI (3.8%) and PPI (6%) data exceeded expectations, market expectations for rate cuts this year have vanished, with the probability of rate hikes rising to 50%;

Dollar and US Treasuries Strengthen: 30-year US Treasury yields break above 5%, sharply increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold;

Geopolitical Risks Easing: Trump’s visit to China, easing of US-Iran tensions, risk aversion demand retreats;

India Import Tariff Increase: Physical demand faces pressure.

Rebound Reasons:

Trump announced delaying military strikes on Iran and stated that the US and Iran may reach an agreement.

4. Key Levels

Short-term

Support: 4,500

Resistance: 4,600→4,650

Medium-term

Support: 4,350→4,400

Resistance: 4,680→4,710

5. Market Outlook

Short-term (1-3 days):

Bearish Fluctuation: Hawkish Fed expectations + strong dollar suppress rebound space; if tonight’s Fed meeting minutes signal stronger tightening, gold may test $4,450;

Rebound Opportunity: If Middle East situation improves, a technical rebound may be triggered, but $4,650 remains a strong resistance.

Medium-term:

Contradictory Battle:

Bearish Factors: Sustained high interest rates, short-term stability of dollar credit;

Support Factors: Central bank gold purchases globally (up 17% YoY in Q1), stagflation logic remains intact.

Range-bound Fluctuation: Expected to oscillate between $4,350 and $4,650 per ounce over the next month. $SOXL $XAGUSD $JPN225