#TradFi交易分享挑战

Silver Price Trend Analysis Today

1. Market Review

After silver experienced a sharp drop in the past two days, a technical oversold rebound appeared in early trading today.

London spot silver is quoted at 77.653 USD per ounce, up 1.24%;

COMEX silver futures are quoted at 78.12 USD per ounce, up 0.74%.

2. Technical Analysis

RSI indicator: The 14-day RSI has fallen below 25, entering a severe oversold zone, leaving room for a 3%-5% technical rebound.

Trading volume: The main Shanghai silver contract’s trading volume yesterday expanded to 574.9k lots, showing heightened divergence between bulls and bears, with funds taking support at lower levels.

3. Impact from News

Reasons for the previous sharp drop:

U.S. April CPI surged to 3.8%, ending expectations of rate cuts;

India raised the silver import tariff from 6% to 15%, hurting demand for physical silver;

COMEX long positions were excessively heavy (35.2%), triggering a stampede and exit.

As a result, the main Shanghai silver contract fell from 22,055 yuan per kilogram to 18,135 yuan per kilogram, a decline of 17.8%. The current rebound is a technical repair after severe overselling.

Reasons for the rebound:

Trump said he will delay military strikes against Iran, and said there is hope that the U.S. and Iran can reach an agreement.

4. Key Levels

Support: 75 USD → 72 USD

Resistance: 80 USD (the round-number level)

5. Outlook for the Coming Period and Trading Recommendations

Short-term trend:

The current rebound is a technical correction and has not changed the bearish structure. If it cannot hold above 80 USD per ounce (international), the market may return to a downtrend.

Medium-term contradictions:

Bearish pressure: Expectations of Fed rate hikes are heating up, the U.S. dollar is strengthening, and rising U.S. Treasury yields continue to suppress the financial attributes.

Bullish factors: The World Silver Association expects a global silver supply-demand gap of 2,000 tons in 2026 (driven by growth in photovoltaic/new energy demand), but in the short term it is being ignored by market sentiment.

It is expected that the market trend is likely to move in coordination with gold.

Trading recommendations:

Long positions should be kept, with a target around 80 USD.

For family members who are currently in cash (no positions), you can open some short positions around 80 USD, with a stop-loss set above 84 USD. $XAGUSD $JPN225 $SOXL