From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main trend (1-hour level): Since the high point of 82,448 on May 10, Bitcoin has entered a clear downtrend. The 1-hour wave structure clearly shows a declining characteristic—wave highs gradually move lower (82,448 → 82,131 → 82,054 → 81,647 → 79,533 → 78,329 → 78,552 → 78,450 → 77,764 → 77,172), and wave lows also move lower in sync (80,595 → 80,454 → 80,698 → 79,820 → 78,700 → 78,601 → 77,611 → 76,659 → 76,540 → 76,002). The rebound to 82,054 on May 14 temporarily broke the downtrend line, but subsequent continuous plunges from May 15–18 repeatedly made new lows, confirming the main downtrend remains intact and has entered an acceleration phase.
Downtrend line: The downward resistance line connecting 82,131 and 81,286 was broken on the rebound of May 14, but then from 82,054 plunged to 76,002, forming a steeper downward channel. The current price of 76,922 is significantly below all major trend lines, indicating a very clear and accelerating downtrend.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): Since the high of 82,054, a steep downward channel has formed—highs gradually decline (82,054 → 81,647 → 79,533 → 78,329 → 78,552 → 78,450 → 77,764 → 77,172), and lows drop sharply (78,601 → 77,611 → 76,659 → 76,540 → 76,002). On May 18, there was a cliff-like drop from 78,450 to 76,002, with a single-day decline of over 2,400.
Dow conclusion: The main trend is a clear downward trend, now in an accelerated phase. The upper resistance at 77,500 is a short-term resistance level; if the price cannot break through this level on a rebound, the downtrend remains intact; if it effectively breaks 78,000, a trend reversal may occur.
2. Chan Theory
Structure of fractals: On the 15-minute level, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked on the chart.
Top fractals appear at 82,054, 81,647, 80,991, 80,772, 79,533, 78,329, 78,552, 78,450, 77,764, 77,172, with overall lower highs forming a descending fractal chain.
Bottom fractals appear at 78,601, 79,190, 79,907, 80,306, 77,611, 76,659, 76,540, 76,002, with 76,002 making a new low, confirming the dominance of bears.
Pen (Bi) and line segments: From the top fractal at 78,552 to the bottom fractal at 76,728, a strong downward pen (purple line) was formed, with a decline over 1,800. Then from 76,728 bottom fractal to 77,120 top fractal, a weak upward pen (blue line) was formed, with a rise of only about 400, much weaker than the previous downward pen. Next, from 77,120 top fractal to 76,002 bottom fractal, a more powerful downward pen (dark red line) was formed, with a decline over 1,100, indicating increasing bearish strength. Currently, starting from the 76,002 bottom fractal, the price is constructing an upward pen in its early stage, but with very weak momentum.
Central zone: In the 76,500–77,500 range, candlesticks are densely interwoven, forming a new central zone in Chan Theory. The current price of 76,922 is just near the lower boundary of this zone, indicating a retest after the zone break. If the price can hold above the zone’s lower boundary (above 76,500), a rebound is possible; if it falls back below, further decline toward 75,000 increases in risk.
Chan conclusion: The downward pen is very strong and has made a new low, currently at the transition between the end of a downward pen and the beginning of an upward pen. Short-term focus on whether 76,002 can form an effective bottom fractal; if yes, the downward pen may end; if it directly breaks below 75,800, the downward extension toward 75,000 increases.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the trend since May 10 is divided into waves:
Wave A: 82,448 → 80,454 (rapid decline, about 1,994)
Wave B: 80,454 → 81,286 (weak rebound, about 832, less than 50% of Wave A)
Wave C (first wave): 81,286 → 78,700 (main decline wave, about 2,586, approximately 1.3 times Wave A)
X wave (rebound): 78,700 → 82,054 (strong rebound, about 3,354)
Wave C (second wave): 82,054 → 78,601 (further decline, about 3,453)
Wave C (third wave): 78,601 → 77,611 (further decline, about 990)
Wave C (fourth wave): 77,611 → 76,002 (further decline, about 1,609)
Wave C (fifth wave/extension): 76,002 → current 76,922 (small rebound)
The total amplitude of the current Wave C (from 82,054 to 76,002) has reached about 6,052, far exceeding Wave A’s 1,994, showing typical extension characteristics, with a five-wave extension structure already formed. Wave C may be nearing its end, watch for a rebound after its completion. If 76,002 is the end of Wave C, the rebound target may be in the 77,000–77,500 range; if Wave C extends further, the lower targets are 75,000–76,000.
Wave conclusion: Currently in the final part of ABC correction Wave C (extended five-wave wave). Wave C is very strong with multiple extensions, but nearing its end zone. Short-term, avoid chasing shorts; waiting for Wave C to complete for a more stable rebound is recommended.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: In the past two days, especially during the sharp declines on May 17–18, there was a significant increase in volume, indicating that sellers have completely taken control in the short term, and the market has rapidly shifted from a bullish to a deeply bearish state.
Key volume-price nodes:
- May 15, 13:00: A huge volume bearish candle (volume 1.9B), dropping from 80,300 to 78,601, confirming the first panic sell-off.
- May 16, 10:00: A huge volume bearish candle (volume 1.6B), dropping from 78,000 to 77,611, confirming the second panic sell-off.
- May 18, 14:00: A huge volume bearish candle (volume 3.3B), dropping from 77,400 to 76,002, confirming the third panic sell-off, with the highest recent volume.
After May 18, the volume gradually decreased, showing a shrinking volume consolidation, indicating selling pressure has eased but buying has not yet gathered.
The last 10 candlesticks: rebounded from 76,002 to 76,922 with decreasing volume, showing a consolidation in the 76,500–77,200 range with intense market struggle.
Volume-price conclusion: The end of Wave C’s decline shows a volume spike (3.3B) halting the fall, but subsequent rebound volume is insufficient. The current shrinking volume consolidation indicates both bulls and bears are waiting. If a rebound reaches 77,000 with volume increase, bullish dominance is confirmed; if it drops below 76,000 with volume, bears regain control.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The horizontal volume distribution on the right shows the recent 2-day volume control point (POC) at 76,894. This is the area with the densest trading, forming the most important value zone center.
Current position analysis: Price at 76,922 is about 28 above POC, above the value area with minimal deviation. In order flow theory, returning to POC indicates short-term balance between bulls and bears, and the market is in a reasonable valuation zone.
High Volume Nodes (HVN): Several HVN zones are marked (orange semi-transparent background):
- 76,206–76,410: support HVN near the recent low (76,002)
- 76,716–77,124: current oscillation HVN (near POC, intense battle zone)
Delta analysis (bottom subgraph): Delta estimates show that during Wave C’s decline on May 17–18, Delta remained negative, confirming active selling. However, near 76,002, Delta briefly turned positive, indicating passive buying absorption. Currently, Delta MA12 has risen to positive, showing buying strength is increasing, and selling pressure is weakening.
Order flow conclusion: Price returning near POC suggests short-term balance. Key supports at 76,200 and 76,000, if Delta remains positive with volume increase at these levels, a rebound is likely; if Delta turns negative and price drops below 76,000, the trend continues downward.
6. Price Action
Support and resistance levels (orange dashed lines):
- Strong resistance: 82,448 (high point), 82,054 (rebound high), 81,647 (previous wave high)
- Key resistance: 80,000 (psychological level), 78,500 (former support turned resistance), 77,500 (psychological level)
- Key supports: 77,611 (former low), 76,659 (former low), 76,540 (former low), 76,002 (new low of Wave C), 75,800 (psychological level), 75,000 (important support)
Candlestick patterns:
- Near 82,448, a double top formed (82,448 and 82,131), neckline at 80,800. The price has broken below the neckline significantly, confirming the double top and exceeding the measured decline target.
- May 15, 13:00: A long lower shadow bearish candle at 78,601 shows buying support below.
- May 16, 10:00: A large bearish candle made a new low at 77,611, indicating strong bearish force.
- May 18, 14:00: A large bearish candle at 76,002, showing continued bearish strength.
The current price in the 76,500–77,200 range forms a small consolidation zone, awaiting direction.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: Downward channel (connecting 82,054 and 79,533 trend line)
- Medium-term: Confirmed double top, strong downward trend with multiple new lows
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the price is in a critical battle zone between the lower boundary of the downward channel and support levels. 76,002 is a key dividing line: holding above may lead to a rebound testing 77,500; breaking below could extend the measured decline of the double top, with a higher probability of dropping to 75,000.
Overall assessment:
Dow signals a main trend downward, key level at 77,500 resistance. Chan shows very strong downward pen with new lows, currently at the transition between the end of a downward pen and the start of an upward pen, focus on 76,002 fractal confirmation. Elliott Wave indicates a final Wave C (extended five-wave correction), nearing its end. Volume-price shows a spike (3.3B) at Wave C’s end with shrinking volume afterward. Order flow shows POC at 76,894, price near value area, Delta turning positive. Price action confirms double top + downward channel, with 76,002 as a key dividing line.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If price shows sustained volume spike at 76,002 with bottom fractal and positive Delta, consider light long positions targeting 77,000 → 77,500, with stop-loss at 75,800.
- Bearish scenario: If rebound to 77,000–77,500 shows top fractal with volume decline, confirming the end of upward wave + extended double top decline, consider short positions targeting 75,000, with stop-loss at 77,800.
Current state: At 76,922, in a highly contested zone with decreasing volume. Wait for a clear direction before entering. In the 76,500–77,200 range, consider light high/low trades with strict stop-loss.