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Old Dazi's Q1 FY27 earnings report drops tomorrow (May 20) after hours.
Wall Street consensus: revenue at $78 billion, with data centers at $73 billion. But aggressive bears have already pushed the model above $80 billion.
The key variable isn't the revenue itself—it's Blackwell's shipping cadence and gross margin. Blackwell now makes up a big chunk of data center compute revenue, and its margin directly dictates the entire forward model.
The implied volatility priced in the options market is at 8-10%, consistent with the last few quarters. This means if you’re holding a position tomorrow, the $78 billion expectation has been fully baked in. The real game is focused on three points: whether next quarter's guidance exceeds expectations, if supply chain constraints ease, and how they respond to AMD and custom chip competition.
Last year's Q4 saw Old Dazi's data center revenue grow by 75% year-over-year. The market's question is: how long can this growth rate be sustained?
When that number drops tomorrow night, the direction for the entire semiconductor sector will be set.
#TradfiTradingChallenge