These past few days, looking at the macro is actually quite like a mixing console: when you tighten the interest rates, everyone's risk appetite immediately becomes quieter, and I subconsciously reduce my position a bit... To put it simply, it's not that I don't believe in the outlook, but I don't want to hard it out in a storm. Conversely, whenever I hear rumors like "possibly a rate cut," my hands start to itch again, wanting to move some bullets out of stablecoins little by little.

On-chain data is also quite honest; last night I saw a transaction from 0x7c…a9 split into three parts into a CEX, with intervals just over ten minutes, as if testing the waters: whether deposits and withdrawals can go smoothly, whether KYC will get stuck. Recently, some regions have increased taxes and tightened compliance, which really affects psychological expectations. Even if you're not there, seeing the wind direction makes you more inclined to hold some positions that can be "withdrawn at any time." Anyway, I now have only one principle: when macro conditions are unfriendly, dream less, stay alive first, and wait until the music plays louder again.