#Polymarket每日热点

This Year’s Market Trend Preview

Phase One: May-June, Volatility and Accumulation.
Institutions won’t chase retail investor sentiment. They are more likely to rebalance between interest rates, oil prices, Iran risks, and legislative progress. Prices may fluctuate repeatedly, but as long as ETF funds don’t experience continuous large outflows, the trend isn’t dead.

Phase Two: July-September, Policy Pricing Period.
If expectations for rate cuts strengthen, the CLARITY Act continues to advance, and stablecoin regulations are implemented, banks and brokerages will accelerate their integration, and crypto finance will enter a “regulatory premium” phase. Funds will prioritize the easiest directions for institutions to interpret: spot ETFs, stablecoins, RWA, custody, exchanges, and on-chain USD settlement.

Phase Three: October-December, Accelerated Differentiation.
Large institutions will buy “financial infrastructure,” not random story assets. The strong will continue to absorb liquidity, while weak narratives and purely emotional assets will be drained. If macroeconomic easing materializes by year-end, a short squeeze rally may occur; if inflation/oil prices/geopolitical risks spiral out of control again, a deeper pullback could happen.

This year, it’s not retail investors in a bull market, but institutions building positions.

The overall direction is positive, but the rhythm won’t be comfortable.
BlackRock is responsible for “financializing” crypto assets; Vanguard and similar conservative giants are proving they can no longer be completely excluded from platforms; regulators are transforming the wild market into a Wall Street-compatible market.

The biggest positive for crypto finance this year isn’t a surge in prices, but its integration into the traditional financial system.