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Why do fund managers quietly struggle to reach the peak and keep stocks at the bottom for days? Because in BIST's shallow waters, affairs depend on "depth of the order book."
If there are no buyers, a seller is nothing. On the stock exchange, every sale must have a buyer on the other side. The fund has 10 million lots of shares, and let's say the price is at 50 TL at the peak. The fund manager can't just say "Sell all at 50 TL and pocket the profit" if there is no liquidity; "50 TL x 10 million lots" is the apparent value, but it isn't real money, real value.
They look at the order book and see that only 50,000 lots are waiting for buy orders at the 50 TL level. But no one will buy the remaining 9,950,000 lots at that price.
If the fund wants to unload that massive position quickly, it will inevitably have to dump its holdings onto those who place buy orders at lower prices. The buyers at 50 TL disappear, and the fund sells to those at 49 TL. When those are gone, it sells at 48 TL. This huge wave of selling wipes out all the buy orders on the book within seconds, and the stock's price suddenly drops to the day's 10% limit, the "bottom" price.
It's like throwing a huge boulder into a small pond; the water instantly overflows.
Once the stock hits the bottom, psychology kicks in. Small investors panic and cancel all their buy orders below. Now, there are no buyers left on the order book.
Imagine a stadium concert where 50,000 people try to exit through a single narrow door at the same time. Everyone wants to leave, but the door (the number of buyers) is very small. There’s a high risk of people getting crushed.
The fund, which still holds 8 million lots inside, will pile up sell orders at the bottom price again as soon as the market opens the next morning. Since there are no buyers, the stock opens directly at the bottom price.
This cycle can continue for days until the price drops enough to attract new "opportunistic" buyers. The fund originally bought the stock at 5 TL, and the price has been driven up to 50 TL with momentum. Even if it can't sell at 50 TL, and the stock hits the bottom at 36 TL after three days of decline, the total operation still yields a 620% profit.
For large players, a few bottom hits may not completely erase the total profit from the operation. Their loss doesn't start from the same point as small investors' losses. Their average exit costs are still a huge gain.
However, if unexpectedly many investors demand "I’m leaving the fund, give me my money," the fund might have to dump the stock onto the order book regardless of the price to raise cash.
In short, the "paper value" of funds can only be realized if there is sufficient counter demand. Large sales in a shallow order book will quickly push the price down.