#Polymarket每日热点

Let's talk about my view on gold prices in May. I think this decline is not just a simple correction; it is highly likely to continue downward this month, making it difficult to hold the $4,500 level.

Gold dropped 1% intraday, falling below $4,500. This is not only due to short-term profit-taking but also more importantly because market expectations of Fed rate cuts have significantly cooled down. The rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields directly suppresses gold's upward potential. Moreover, after a large rally earlier, the market has accumulated a lot of profit-taking positions. Once there is any turbulence, the pressure for capital to flee will be released all at once. Although geopolitical risks still exist, there are no new catalysts in the short term, which is insufficient to support continuous gold price strength.

I am not optimistic about a rebound or stabilization in May; instead, I believe that after a technical breakdown, there is still room for correction below. Unless a sudden black swan event occurs or the Fed unexpectedly signals dovishness, it will be difficult for gold to quickly recover lost ground, and the risk of further decline remains higher.