The resumption of military actions by the US and Israel is indeed a major negative for the crypto market. The current market reaction is just the beginning; if the operation officially starts, it is expected to follow an evolving logic of "short-term intense shocks and medium-term divergence in paths":

· ① Geopolitical outlook: War clouds gathering: The recent US-Israel talks mainly focus on resuming military strikes, and negotiations have fallen into deadlock. Trump has issued a "final ultimatum," and the Pentagon has formulated two military plans, with the situation on the verge of eruption.
· ② Short-term impact: Driving up oil prices, "scaring" the crypto market: The market will panic-sell risk assets like BTC seeking safe haven. Meanwhile, if the conflict pushes oil prices above $100 as in February, it will intensify global inflation expectations and rate hike concerns, further draining market liquidity and recreating the brutal scene of "150k liquidations."
· ③ Medium- to long-term divergence: Reversal possibilities exist: If Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to push oil prices and inflation higher, Bitcoin will face ongoing headwinds; but if traditional financial systems come under pressure, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" may attract some fleeing funds from sovereign currencies during the panic later on.

The key observation window ahead lies in Trump’s final decision on the 19th. If the "final shoe drops," the market may experience even more intense volatility. #加密市场下跌15万人爆仓