Since May, silver (XAG/USD) has experienced a sharp decline from around $87 to $75-77, with current market sentiment leaning towards caution.

Market review: In early May, silver benefited temporarily from supply disruptions caused by energy supply interruptions in Peru and strong industrial demand, reaching the $90 level earlier this year. However, after U.S. inflation data in April exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year surged. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar exerted double pressure, causing silver prices to sharply give back gains.

Technical analysis: The current $76–77 area is an important short-term support level for bulls. The lower band of the Bollinger Bands is near $76, the daily MACD momentum is weakening, and the RSI has fallen to around 40, approaching oversold territory. If this level holds, a technical rebound may be brewing; conversely, if it breaks below effectively, further downside to $72–73 could open up.

Institutional views: UBS has lowered its year-end target price for silver from $100 to $80, while HSBC considers silver still overvalued. Expectations of a narrowing supply-demand gap have reduced some upward momentum for silver. Overall, short-term pressure has not been fully released, and traders should watch for continued adjustments.