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Just now, a violent surge likely blew out some of the shorts, but don’t panic—this rally is only because the U.S. has temporarily exempted oil and is only
not allowing new production capacity: Iran can’t extract an extra barrel
• No new ships: no new orders, and no new tankers loading oil
• No new trade: no new export quotas
• Financial sanctions and other sanctions are completely unchanged (only this one oil loophole is loosened)
One sentence: they’re only releasing “oil already en route,” not giving Iran any new income channels.
Negotiations can fall apart anytime, and they’re gathering strength to prepare for war—shorts have assembled.