The US really caved. The latest news says the US has agreed to lift sanctions on Iranian oil and has also proposed temporarily pausing OFAC-related sanctions before reaching a final understanding. WTI crude oil immediately broke below 104, the US dollar fell in the short term, and gold actually jumped by $25.

To put it simply, this pace boils down to: oil prices can’t be controlled, inflation can’t be pushed down, so they turn to softer measures when the hard ones don’t work.

But for crypto, a drop in oil prices means a bit less inflation pressure, so the “rate cut” narrative can be spun for a couple more days. Still, don’t take it too seriously—how many rounds of talks have the US and Iran already had? Every time, it’s thunder but little rain. And even if they really do reach an agreement, it will take time for oil prices to ease. The short-term market sentiment can catch its breath, but in the medium term, US Treasury yields are still high and liquidity hasn’t returned. Today, BTC even dipped as low as 76,500, with 150,000 traders liquidated and $670 million in long positions cleared. After BTC broke below 77k, funding rates across major CEXs and DEXs fell across the board, and market sentiment has fully flipped to bearish.

This sell-off targets high-leverage longs. So if you ask me how I see it—there could be a bounce in the short term, but the bigger trend remains under pressure. As long as US Treasury yields don’t come down, capital won’t dare come back. Now the 30-year US Treasury yield is at 5%—who’s still buying risky assets? Isn’t it better to just lie back and earn 5%?

Before Nvidia’s earnings report (after the market closes on May 20), the AI sector likely won’t have an independent breakout. Last quarter, Compute revenue was expected to be about $61 billion, but the real highlight is the Networking business—market expectations are for year-on-year growth of as much as 270% or more. That’s the hidden catalyst for a surge. Expectations have already been priced in heavily, so beating earnings would be expected. What matters is that next quarter’s guidance can still be raised further.

Wait and see first—don’t go heavy, and don’t hold positions through the noise. The real confirmation point for the direction will be after the US East early-morning Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Nvidia’s earnings report land on Thursday. #Polymarket每日热点 $BTC