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Iran's move is too clever! Instead of launching missiles, they hit the finance sector—US Treasury bonds suddenly explode!
Have you noticed? Recently, both US and Japanese stocks are falling, not because of war, but due to a more dangerous signal—the US 30-year Treasury yield soaring past 5%. The last time this happened was on the eve of the 2007 financial crisis! Japan’s 30-year government bonds also broke through 4%, hitting a new high since 1999.
What does this mean? Global capital is re-pricing itself: the era of low oil prices and low inflation may be coming to an end.
This time, Iran isn’t directly clashing with the US with warships and missiles but is blocking the strait and pushing up oil prices. High oil prices → high inflation → high interest rates → debt explosion. US national debt is about to break $40 trillion, with interest alone exceeding $1.2 trillion this year—more than military spending! If inflation can’t be contained, stocks, real estate, and banks will all tremble.
Japan is even worse—its debt is 250% of GDP. When interest rates rise, the yen depreciates, arbitrage trades reverse, and money flows back to Japan, worsening US liquidity.
This is the butterfly effect—Iran has seized the US’s most vulnerable weak points: debt and interest rates.
Looking at China, it remains stable. With diversified energy sources, the world’s largest oil reserves, and leading new energy development, the impact of rising oil prices is limited; we don’t have high inflation, and Treasury yields are steady. When global capital sees: the US itself has become an unstable source, where will it go? China, which is the true safe haven.
So don’t panic; the national fortune is shining brighter amid this turbulence. The fundamentals of A-shares are quietly improving.