May 18th Gold Evening Analysis

Fundamentals
U.S. inflation data remains high, the expectation of rate cuts this year has faded, and the probability of rate hikes has surged, pushing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher, significantly increasing the cost of holding gold. Tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, intensifying inflation pressures, but safe-haven demand has been offset by liquidity concerns. Although global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, short-term upward pressure is unlikely to overcome the bearish impact of rate hikes.

Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows a clear bearish trend, with strong moving average resistance and sufficient bearish momentum. Only minor oversold indicators suggest a short-term rebound demand, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged. The four-hour chart shows weakness, with Bollinger Bands opening downward. The previous support at 4500 has turned into resistance, and the slight divergence at the bottom has only led to a small rebound, with limited rebound strength.

Evening Trading Strategy

Short in the 4555-4560 range, with a stop loss at 4572. Targets are sequentially 4520, 4500, and 4480, mainly aiming for short positions on rebounds. #黄金