#TradFi交易分享挑战

#加密市场下跌15万人爆仓

The bulls' sky has fallen! How low will this drop?

Waking up to find the bears making a killing, the bulls' sky has fallen again. Under the potential resumption of US military strikes on Iran and Wash's appointment, both of which are double bearish signals for the Fed, BTC has fallen below 77k, with 150k traders liquidated across the network. Just a second ago, it was bullish, and now it's bearish again. Facing the current market, Little Wealthy believes it's not the time to bottom fish yet.

Technical Pattern Analysis – 74,000 May Be a Strong Support

Currently, from the 4-hour chart, ADX is at 44.40 (moderate trend strength), CCI at -130.85 (extremely oversold), MA arrangement is neutral, RSI is neutral to weak, WR at -81.84 (oversold), and the price remains in a short-term five-wave decline structure's Wave C, with no volume rebound and room for further decline below. On the daily chart, MACD shows increasing green bars, with no moving averages below to defend, and strong support is around 74,500; on the weekly chart, it is clearly suppressed by the MA30, and the next focus is whether the price will break below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 75,000. If broken, last week's breakout was a false breakout, and the market will return to a bear trend.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels

First Support: 76,440 (Bollinger Bands 1H lower band, also a recent dense area of daily lows)

Second Support: 74,500 (mid-May correction low, previous rebound starting point)

Strong Support: 72,800 (late April bottom area)

Resistance Levels

First Resistance: 77,620 (Bollinger Bands 1H middle band)

Second Resistance: 78,800 (Bollinger Bands upper band + recent high-density area)

Strong Resistance: 80,600–82,400 (early May high area)

News Analysis – US and Iran Still Talking, Geopolitical Risks Under Control

Although there are reports of the US resuming military actions against Iran, given the current stalemate, the military strikes are likely limited targeted actions. Both sides may also release news of negotiations afterward. So, geopolitics will definitely cause short-term shocks to the market, meaning there could be a panic sell-off, but the overall impact will be limited.

Trading Recommendations

Short-term: Do not blindly chase short positions. If the market drops to around 74,000–74,500, consider lightly bottom-fishing long positions, with a stop loss near 72,800.

Mid-term: Aggressive traders can open short positions at current prices. More conservative traders can wait for rebounds to open short positions at higher levels. If the price breaks below 74,500, wait for a rebound to add to short positions.