Gold falls below $4,500! Auntie rushes to take off her gold bracelets overnight, but Wall Street is secretly bottom-fishing?

On May 18th, the gold market suddenly experienced a "free fall," with spot gold dropping by 1% intraday, directly losing the $4,500 level. The "gold will always rise" crowd on social media suddenly went quiet, gold shop owners fell silent, only traders' keyboard clicks sounded like raindrops.
But the question is: has gold peaked, or is this a "fake dip to shake out traders"?
From a macro perspective, there are three main reasons for this round of gold decline. First, recent US economic data slightly exceeded expectations, causing the market to waver again on rate cuts; second, the dollar index rebounded briefly, delivering a "spin kick" to gold; third, some long positions took profits, leading to a stampede in gold prices.
What’s truly interesting is—retail investors are panicking, while institutions are quietly increasing their positions.
Historically, after each major drop, gold exhibits a magical phenomenon: the more aggressively the social media crowd predicts a fall, the stronger the rebound afterward. Because gold has never been an "emotional asset," but rather a "risk hedge."
Don’t forget, the real problems in the world haven’t been solved: US debt is still soaring, geopolitical risks persist, and expectations for rate cuts remain. This year, the biggest logic behind gold remains "monetary credit anxiety."
In other words, short-term gold may continue to fluctuate, but in the medium to long term, the bullish story is not over.
From a technical perspective, $4,500 is a key psychological level. If the price quickly recovers in the next few days, the market is likely to form a "false breakout"; once it stabilizes, market sentiment will quickly reverse.
So, what does the market resemble most right now?
It’s like a sudden power outage in a movie theater. Some think the movie is over, but it’s just a scene change.
My prediction is: in late May, gold is likely to oscillate and shake out traders first, then rebound strongly. The real danger isn’t the fall itself, but that you handed your chips to institutions at the lowest point.
On Polymarket, some people are already betting that gold will regain $4,600 by the end of the month. Who’s right? We’ll see at the end of the month. #Polymarket每日热点