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Unfortunately, bitcoin:native may be returning to a downward trend again.
In the past 10 trading days, the total BTC ETF assets have already shifted to a net outflow of $347.9 million.
Short-term holders' cost basis is at $79,100, and it only took less than a day to break below that.
The next dense accumulation zone is between $65,000 and $70,000,
which is the purchase price range of BTC investors from February to April,
and profit-taking by these investors will also cause BTC to fall below $70,000.
Additionally, the familiar topics of U.S. Treasury bonds and oil prices remain relevant;
the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken above 5%, the 10-year yield has surpassed 4.5%,
oil prices have returned above $100 per barrel, and the upward momentum shows no signs of weakening,
while the market sentiment towards macroeconomics is no longer as enthusiastic as last week.
Moreover, even if BTC drops, little capital flows into the altcoin market;
interestingly, as BTC declines, the market share of altcoin contracts has even decreased further.
In the short term, if BTC cannot return to the $79,000–$80,000 range, I will reduce my holdings;
if it falls below $76,000, the next support levels are between $73,000 and $74,000.
If it drops below $74,000 and ETF outflows continue, it will be almost certain that the trend is downward.