$77,000 Bitcoin, do you want to cut?

Half a billion dollars long position wiped out overnight, ETF outflows of 1 billion in a single week, Harvard University directly cut 43% of its holdings, the price was hammered back from 82k to 76k— but just now, after the 6-period RSI dropped to 13, it rebounded. Japanese brokers are bottom-fishing, Strategy is still buying.

First look at the surface: negative news one after another, the price can't hold.

In the past week, ETF outflows totaled $1 billion, with a single-day net outflow of $635 million on May 13 (the largest this year). Institutions like Harvard sharply reduced their holdings, 900 BTC were dumped onto exchanges. The price failed to break above 82k three times, sliding all the way down to 76.8k, a 1.5% drop in 24 hours.

Candlestick charts tell you: 82k has become the ceiling, 76k is the last hiding spot. MACD is about to cross bearish, RSI just crawled out of despair at 13.

First thing: $500 million liquidation + RSI at 13, this is extreme panic.

Within hours, $500 million long positions were wiped out. The 6-period RSI hit 13— the last time it was at this level was November 2022 during the FTX collapse, when BTC rebounded from 16k to 30k.

Extreme overselling is never a selling point, it’s a buying signal.

Japanese brokers are structurally buying, Strategy is still accumulating coins, spot buyers are holding firm near 76k.

Second thing: ETF outflows are real, but the long-term institutional logic remains intact.

Harvard cut 43% of its ETF holdings, sounds scary. But look closely—they didn’t sell all, just reduced their position. BlackRock’s IBIT has some redemptions, but overall holdings are still at a historical high.

Iran has started using Bitcoin for shipping insurance. As geopolitical conflicts intensify, BTC’s “safe-haven attribute” is being validated in real scenarios.

Third thing: on-chain data suggests the bottom is near.

Hashrate surged to 1012 EH/s, miners are still adding machines, MPI is negative—that means miners are not selling coins. MVRV Z-Score is only 1.41, the top historically exceeds 3.5.

Active addresses are in a neutral zone, with no frenzy or collapse. Whales are quietly accumulating at low levels. Post-halving, miners’ costs have risen, below 76k is their cost line.

One side says:

- ETF outflows continue, $82k dumped

- Macro is tight, CPI exceeds expectations, Fed not cutting rates

- 82k has failed to break three times, technical pressure mounting

- Your friends say “Bear market is here, run now”

The other side says:

- RSI rebounded from 13, extreme oversold signal

- Japanese brokers + Strategy + spot buyers are buying at 76k

- Hashrate hits new highs, miners not selling, on-chain health

- MVRV still undervalued, far from the top

Key level: 76.8k— the life and death line for bulls and bears.

Resistance above: 80k → 82k (failed three times) → 85k-87,000

Support below: 76k (short-term neckline) → 74,000-73,000 (50-day moving average) → 71,000-68,000 (strong bottom)

Short-term traders:

Buy in batches around 76k-76,500, stop-loss at 74,500, target 80k-82k. If it truly breaks past 82k after many fakeouts, chase it directly, stop-loss at 80k, aiming for 85k+.

Swing traders:

Wait for the daily close above 80k before entering, target 85k-90k.

Long-term believers:

DCA below 76k, target 100k+. Don’t buy when MVRV is at 1.41, wait until it reaches 3.5 before chasing.

BTC right now is just like before the 2024 ETF approval—

99% of people think “macro is so bad, it must fall further,” but institutions have absorbed all the chips below 70k. #TradFi交易分享挑战 #加密市场下跌15万人爆仓 $BTC $ETH