Semiconductor ETFs Lead in Gains; Public Funds Warn of Short-Term Overbought Risks

Securities Times reporter Chen Shuyu

In the just-passed week (May 11–May 15), multiple semiconductor indices topped the gainers list, and the prices of related theme ETFs also rose along with them.

Specifically, according to Wind data, last week the Zhou-on-zhou (week-on-week) gain of the STAR Market semiconductor materials and equipment index was about 20%, while both the Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index and the CSI Semiconductor Index each rose by more than 10% week-on-week. Among the related ETFs, including the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Yanchuan Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF and the Huaxia CSI Yanchuan Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF, among others, the week-on-week gains exceeded 20%. Looking over a longer period, Huatai-PineBridge CSI Korea Exchange Korea–Korea Semiconductor ETF’s year-to-date gain exceeded 130%, and ETFs such as the Huatai-PineBridge STAR Market Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF and the Huaxia STAR Market Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF recorded year-to-date gains of over 60%.

In response, Guolian An Fund stated that last week the semiconductor industry chain continued to exhibit a high level of business momentum, and the core driver still came from upward revisions to global AI computing power capital expenditure. Overseas cloud providers’ capital expenditure expectations continued to rise, and leading domestic internet platforms also clearly increased their AI investment. The expansion of computing infrastructure is also expanding from the server and chip stages to further transmission toward advanced packaging, semiconductor equipment, key materials, and critical components.

Looking ahead, multiple institutions said that the industry may experience overheating in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains favorable.

Huaxia Fund believes that the semiconductor industry faces high risks at elevated levels in the short term, but the long-term growth logic is solid. From a technical perspective, the STAR Market semiconductor materials and equipment index is currently in an accelerating bullish phase: the stock price is rising steadily along each moving average line, short-term moving averages and medium- and long-term moving averages form a clear bullish alignment, trading volume continues to expand, and capital follow-through is strong. The MACD red histogram continues to widen, indicating strong bullish momentum; however, the RSI indicator has reached the high overbought zone, and there is a short-term risk of a technical pullback or consolidation at high levels, so investors should be alert to volatility caused by profit-taking. But the short-term sentiment premium does not change the long-term trend. Semiconductors are the “digital infrastructure” of this transformation—together with the continued backing of large funds in their third phase and the acceleration of domestic substitution breaking through, short-term fluctuations are merely the buildup within the main upswing; long-term upside is the inevitable direction of the era. The logic is as solid as a rock, and the growth path is clearly visible.

Shangyin Fund stated that as signs of easing international geopolitical tensions appear, together with recent U.S. economic data highlighting the country’s economic resilience, global markets’ risk appetite has increased significantly. Funds previously suppressed by risk-averse sentiment have returned to the technology main theme. Meanwhile, performance reports disclosed by domestic semiconductor companies show that semiconductor prosperity is not an “air castle,” but real performance improvement driven by AI—especially concentrated in the computing power, storage, wafer manufacturing, and equipment materials chains. As the strategic position of artificial intelligence (AI) in great-power competition continues to rise, semiconductor self-reliance and controllability is shifting from a long-term narrative to a real constraint. The logic of domestic substitution in domestic computing-power chips, storage, equipment, materials, and other segments will continue to be strengthened. In the long run, the industry direction is clearly positive, but in the short term the market faces overheating risks and volatility is unavoidable. From an industry-cycle perspective, this round of market activity is more likely to continue to evolve on a yearly basis, and investors’ perspective should shift to the industry cycle.

Guolian An Fund stated that on the industry level, the overall high prosperity of the semiconductor industry is evident, and industry resilience continues to be released. Demand for advanced packaging and testing equipment shows explosive growth; for some equipment, delivery lead times have already been extended to more than 1 year. Within the industry, companies generally sign long-cycle, large-framework orders, demonstrating confidence in long-term industrial development. In the packaging segment, technology continues to iterate. SK Hynix is working with Intel to explore integrating its self-developed HBM technology with Intel’s EMIB-based 2.5D packaging technology. At the same time, prices of key semiconductor materials rise in tandem. Sumitomo’s epoxy resin molding materials used for semiconductor packaging rose by 10% to 20%. Electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid may see large price increases for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix from June to July. Ajinomoto confirmed that ABF substrate materials are starting to rise in price and adopts a customer-by-customer adjustment approach, and target material prices are also expected to continue rising in the second quarter. Affected by expectations of potential strike disruptions at Samsung, Shenzhen Huaqiangbei’s DDR4 spot quotations have already surged by 20%. Overall, multiple categories—including packaging materials, wet electronic chemicals, and storage—are showing a simultaneous pattern of increases in both volume and price.

【Author: Chen Shuyu】 (Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Semiconductor ETF