Opinion: The "May Curse" may reoccur in the U.S. midterm election year, analysts warn of significant downside risk for Bitcoin

Mars Finance News, on May 18, during the past two crypto bear markets, May in U.S. midterm election years has been accompanied by significant declines in Bitcoin: in May 2018, Bitcoin dropped from nearly $10k to about $7,000; in May 2022, it fell from around $40k to $28.5k, and then further down to $20k. Since 2026 also falls within a bear market cycle and coincides with the U.S. midterm election year, concerns about the repetition of historical trends are intensifying. Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar stated last Sunday, “This is the cruelest pattern in Bitcoin’s history. No one wants to hear it, but this pattern is too perfect. During midterm election years, Bitcoin always crashes.” He believes that even with positive factors such as the advancement of the CLARITY Act, signals of favorable crypto policies from the Trump administration, and potential U.S.-China trade agreements, it is not enough to completely change the historical cycle. In his view, if market sentiment further deteriorates, Bitcoin’s price could even drop to around $33k. Meanwhile, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, also holds a cautious outlook on the future market. He said that if Bitcoin continues to trade below $78k, the probability of entering a new “capitulation sell-off” phase will significantly increase, and the bearish forces have already begun to emerge. Analysts believe that amid macroeconomic uncertainty, shrinking market leverage, and declining risk appetite for funds, Bitcoin’s short-term trend may still face considerable pressure.