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I found something interesting: U.S. debt and oil prices seem to constantly influence Trump's nerves. Every time they break through 4.5%, a TACO occurs.
First TACO: April 2025, reciprocal tariffs pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.5%, and Trump immediately announced a 90-day suspension.
Second TACO: August 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 4.5% again, followed by a joint statement from China and the U.S. in Geneva, a ceasefire on tariffs, and a 90-day extension.
Third TACO: April 2026, oil prices and Treasury yields spiraled out of control again, and news of easing tensions between Iran and the U.S. immediately emerged.
The market has figured out two bottom lines for TACO through repeated cycles: oil prices at 110 and 4.5% or higher for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.
Currently, oil prices have risen to 104, approaching 110 again, and the Treasury yield has broken through 4.5%. This time, how far is it from TACO?