2026-05-18 15:37 BTC Outlook (Short-Medium-Long + Operations)

1. Current Price and Market Overview (15:30)

- Price: $76,860–$76,980, down 3% intraday, 24h low of $76,565
- Key Break: Losing the critical support at $78,000, turning into strong resistance; daily chart breaks below the middle Bollinger Band and moving averages turn downward
- Market Sentiment: $657 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 90% long positions; ETF continues to see net outflows, funds fleeing for safety

2. Short-term Judgment (1–3 days): Weak oscillation, rebound to short

- Support: $76,000–$76,300 (strong), $75,000 (secondary strong)
- Resistance: $77,500–$78,000 (strong resistance), $79,200 (secondary resistance)
- Technical: 4-hour bearish alignment, RSI oversold but no reversal signals; rebounds are mostly weak corrections with limited upside
- Conclusion: Short-term weak oscillation, rebounds are opportunities to short, do not chase longs

3. Medium-term Judgment (1–4 weeks): $75,000–$80,000 range oscillation

- Macro: US CPI/PPI exceed expectations, rate cut expectations delayed, US bond yields rising, liquidity tightening suppresses BTC
- Funds: ETF continues to outflow, institutions are cautious; retail long-short ratio rises to 1.3, strong willingness to chase highs, easy to be trapped
- Key: $75,000 is the mid-term vital line; holding above supports range-bound oscillation; breaking below targets $72,000–$70,000
- Conclusion: Medium-term oscillation leaning weak, the direction is around $75,000; before a clear breakdown, consider high selling and low buying within the range

4. Long-term Judgment (3–12 months): Halving cycle not complete, pullbacks are opportunities

- Cycle: 2024 halving, main bull run mostly 12–24 months after halving (April 2025–April 2026), currently in mid-bull correction
- Target: If $75,000 stabilizes, there’s still a chance to push to $90,000–$100,000 in the second half
- Conclusion: Long-term bullish trend remains intact, pullbacks are opportunities for phased deployment, do not panic sell

5. Operation Suggestions (15:37)

- Spot: Buy in small batches at $76,000–$76,500, add positions at $75,000; stop loss at $74,500
- Contracts (Short-term): Short at rebounds around $77,500–$78,000, stop loss at $78,500, target $76,000–$75,500
- Contracts (Mid-term): Stabilize above $75,000 to go long, stop loss at $74,000, target $80,000
- Position: Total position ≤30%, leverage ≤3x, strictly control risk

6. Core Summary

- Short-term: Weak oscillation, rebound to short
- Medium-term: Range of $75,000–$80,000, break to follow the trend
- Long-term: Bull market not over, pullbacks are opportunities for strategic positioning