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Currently, global long-term bond yields are rising together. In the U.S. bond market, the 10-year yield is approaching recent highs again, and the 30-year yield has surpassed 5%, indicating that the market is beginning to demand higher risk premiums; long-term bonds in the UK, Germany, and Japan are rising in tandem, which also suggests that pressure is not only in the United States.
Prolonged high interest rates will increase financing costs and compress asset valuations, putting pressure on the stock market, real estate, and high-risk assets. For the crypto market, this is usually not a friendly environment.
If geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, the impact may not only be on oil prices but also further raise inflation expectations, leading to a re-pricing of the market's rate cut path and continued rise in long-term bond yields.
What truly pressures the financial system is often not the war itself, but the simultaneous existence of "high inflation + high interest rates + high debt."
However, there is still one step before the global financial system encounters problems: whether a liquidity crisis, sovereign debt risk, or exposure issues in large financial institutions occur.
Currently, it seems more like risks are accumulating rather than having already entered a state of loss of control. #TradFi交易分享挑战