#加密市场下跌15万人爆仓 The crypto market faces another blow, with geopolitical tensions adding chaos!

As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $77,141.16, officially breaking below the key threshold of $77,000, with a volatile downward trend over the past 24 hours—peaking at $78,599.99, dropping to a low of $76,916.60, with nearly $1,700 in intraday fluctuations, and panic spreading in the market.
Adding to the woes, the US-Iran situation has escalated again, with Trump issuing military threats, the US airlifting weapons, and Israel finalizing strike lists, stacking multiple geopolitical risks; meanwhile, the crypto market experienced massive liquidations, with over $500 million in positions forcibly liquidated within an hour, causing heavy losses for longs.
On the other hand, the number of long-term Bitcoin holders has hit a new high since 2025, and the bulls and bears are in fierce contention.
Today, we analyze all the core news, dissect the current market logic, and forecast Bitcoin’s future price movements (not investment advice).

One, Market Highlights: Bitcoin drops below $77,000, over $526 million liquidated in one hour, 150k traders forced to liquidate!!
Bitcoin’s recent volatile pattern has been completely broken. After falling below $77,000, selling pressure intensified, and short-term panic peaked.
According to CoinWorld, in the past hour, crypto liquidations surged to $526 million, with longs being the biggest victims—liquidations of longs reached $510 million, accounting for 96.96% of total liquidations. The core reason is the rapid drop in Bitcoin’s price below $77,000, forcing many leveraged long positions to be liquidated, creating a vicious cycle of “drop → liquidation → further drop.”
This chain reaction caused by high leverage liquidations is highly similar to the large-scale liquidation event in October 2025, both reflecting the high volatility and structural fragility of the crypto market.
From the 24-hour chart, Bitcoin failed to hold the $78,000 support, oscillated from a high of $78,599.99 down to a low of $76,916.60, and although it has slightly rebounded to $77,141.16, overall pressure remains evident.
Trading volume has also increased, indicating short-term capital fleeing.
This downward trend is closely related to the macro uncertainty caused by the escalation of US-Iran tensions—historical data shows that during US-Iran conflicts, if concerns about inflation rebound and Fed rate cuts rise, investors tend to sell risk assets like Bitcoin and shift to commodities and physical safe havens.

Two, Geopolitical Thunder: US-Iran escalation releases three dangerous signals
Bitcoin’s decline is not solely driven by market sentiment but is deeply linked to the sudden escalation of US-Iran tensions.
Recently, US and Iran have been at odds, with three key news releases sending dangerous signals, further intensifying global risk aversion and indirectly suppressing Bitcoin prices.
1. Trump issues military threats, options for military action are on the table. CoinWorld reports that US President Trump, in a call with Axios, issued tough military threats to Iran, stating Iran “has little time left,” warning that if Iran’s regime does not propose a more reasonable deal, “it will face heavier strikes.”
It is understood that Trump initially hoped to reach an agreement to end the war with Iran, but due to Iran’s rejection of several core demands and no substantive concessions on nuclear issues, military options have been reintroduced.
More alarmingly, Trump is scheduled to hold a special meeting next Tuesday in the Situation Room with senior national security officials to discuss military options against Iran, indicating the potential for further escalation or even localized conflict.
Previously, US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities caused Bitcoin to rapidly fall below $100k from $102,000, illustrating how geopolitical conflicts significantly impact the crypto market.
2. US airlifting weapons to Israel, increasing conflict expectations
According to Israeli media, in the past 24 hours, the US has again airlifted weapons and ammunition to Israel—another move following multiple recent deliveries.
This is interpreted as clear US support for Israel, further escalating tensions in the Middle East—Israel’s longstanding conflict with Iran, combined with US backing, could embolden Israel to take military action against Iran.
Analysts point out that ongoing US arms shipments to Israel mean the escalation of US-Iran conflict has entered a “substantive stage,” likely causing major disruptions in global supply chains, with crude oil and natural gas prices expected to surge further.
Funds tend to shift from risk assets like cryptocurrencies to physical safe havens such as metals and precious metals, which is also a key short-term reason for Bitcoin’s decline.
3. Israel finalizes strike list, including previously unapproved targets
According to Saudi media Hadath, citing Israeli sources, Israel’s list of targets for strikes against Iran has been largely finalized, including locations previously rejected by Washington.
This suggests Israel may unilaterally undertake military actions against Iran without fully following US stance, increasing uncertainty.
If Israel launches strikes on Iran, the Middle East situation could spiral out of control, pushing global risk aversion to its peak.
However, unlike traditional safe-haven logic, Bitcoin has not risen with risk aversion but has fallen along with other risk assets.
The core reason is market concern that conflict could trigger oil price spikes and inflation rebounds, which would dampen Fed rate cut prospects and tighten liquidity in the crypto market.

Three, Bulls and Bears: Short-term liquidation pressure, long-term holders countertrend!
The core contradiction in current crypto accumulation is:
In the short term, the escalation of US-Iran tensions and massive liquidations pressure Bitcoin downward;
But in the long term, the number of long-term Bitcoin holders has hit a new high, indicating long-term capital’s recognition of its value, with bulls and bears in fierce competition.
1. Short-term: Liquidation + geopolitical bearishness, clear pressure
In the short term, Bitcoin’s downside is mainly driven by two factors:
First, the chain reaction of massive liquidations—$510 million in long liquidations within an hour—causing market selling pressure to surge and making relief difficult;
Second, the escalation of US-Iran tensions adds macro uncertainty, with increased geopolitical conflict potentially triggering a broad sell-off in global risk assets. As a high-risk asset, Bitcoin is unlikely to be immune.
Additionally, market sentiment shows that after falling below the $77,000 support, some investors panic-sold, further pushing prices down.
Historical patterns show that high leverage in crypto amplifies volatility; when a decline triggers margin calls, forced selling leads to further price drops—this is a key risk in the current market.
2. Long-term: Long-term holders hit a new high since 2025, confidence remains
Contrasting sharply with short-term panic, the holdings of long-term Bitcoin investors continue to rise.
CryptoQuant analysts report that the supply held by long-term holders has increased to about 15.26 million BTC, the highest since August 2025.
In the past 30 days, long-term holders have accumulated approximately 316,000 BTC, contrasting with the roughly 650,000 BTC that flowed out of long-term wallets last year-end.
This indicates that long-term investors are not leaving during short-term volatility but are accumulating against the trend.
This aligns with the logic of “large Bitcoin whales” like MicroStrategy, which have been continuously increasing holdings—long-term capital views Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation and long-term fiscal deficits, not just a short-term speculative asset.
Their sustained accumulation provides a certain long-term support, reducing the risk of sharp price drops.

Four, Future Price Trend Forecast (short-term + mid-term + long-term):
Based on current market conditions, US-Iran tensions, and long-term holder data, Bitcoin’s future will likely show a pattern of “short-term oscillation under pressure, medium-term focus on geopolitical developments, long-term supported by capital inflows,” detailed as follows:
1. Short-term (1-7 days): Volatile decline, watch for breaking below $76,000
In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to remain in a volatile downward trend, with key risks unresolved:
First, the uncertainty of US-Iran escalation—if Trump’s administration confirms military action or Israel initiates strikes, panic could spread further;
Second, liquidation pressure has not fully eased, and some long positions may still be forcibly liquidated, further suppressing prices.
It is estimated that Bitcoin will oscillate between $76,000 and $77,500; if it fails to hold the $76,000 support, it could further dip toward $75,000.
However, the long-term accumulation by holders will provide some support, likely leading to sideways digestion of negative news rather than sharp drops, consistent with past patterns during US-Iran conflicts.
2. Mid-term (1-3 months): Watch US-Iran developments, higher probability of rebound
In the medium term, Bitcoin’s trajectory depends heavily on US-Iran relations:
If an agreement is reached, geopolitical risks ease, risk aversion declines, and funds flow back into crypto, Bitcoin could gradually rebound to the $78,000–$80,000 range;
If conflict escalates, triggering a broad risk asset sell-off, Bitcoin may continue to be pressured, possibly falling below $75,000.
Long-term holders’ continued accumulation will gradually ease short-term selling pressure.
As market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition will reassert itself.
Additionally, if expectations of Fed rate cuts persist, liquidity support for Bitcoin will strengthen, pushing prices higher—aligning with institutional views that “long-term holders dominate the market, with high chip lock-in providing solid support.”
3. Long-term (beyond 6 months): Long-term holder support, unchanged value logic
Long-term, Bitcoin’s fundamental value logic remains intact:
On one hand, the number of long-term holders has hit a new high since 2025, with increased chip lock-in, providing solid long-term support;
On the other hand, ongoing industry regulation and institutional long-term allocations continue to benefit Bitcoin as the core asset of the crypto market.
However, geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic fluctuations (like inflation and Fed policy adjustments) can cause phase volatility.
As during the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin experienced short-term dips but outperformed some stocks and gold overall, maintaining hedging potential.
Thus, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, but short-term volatility must be watched; avoid blindly chasing highs or bottom-fishing.

Five, Key Risk Alerts (must read)
Currently, Bitcoin faces oscillation under pressure, with increasing geopolitical uncertainty—potential risks include:
Price decline risk: Due to liquidations and geopolitical risks, Bitcoin could break below $76,000 and even test $75,000, with high leverage trading risking margin calls;
Geopolitical risk: Escalation of US-Iran conflict or Israeli military actions could trigger a broad risk asset sell-off, further depressing Bitcoin;
Liquidation chain risk: High leverage in crypto could lead to larger-scale liquidations if prices continue to fall, amplifying volatility;
Macro liquidity risk: If US-Iran conflict causes oil prices and inflation to spike, Fed rate cut prospects may diminish, tightening liquidity and impacting Bitcoin prices;
Market sentiment reversal risk: Short-term panic could trigger irrational selling, causing sharp price swings—be alert to sentiment shifts.

All the above do not constitute investment advice!! $BTC