🎯 Specific Operational Recommendations

Based on the logic of "going with the trend but waiting for a rebound," here are several key levels for your reference:

1. Main Strategy: Short on rebound (recommended)

· Entry zone: Wait for the price to rebound to the $77,700 - $78,500 range
· Stop-loss placement: Set above $79,000 - $79,500 (standing firm invalidates the short)
· Take-profit targets: $76,000 (first target) / $75,000 (second target)
· Logic: This is a resistance zone on the 4-hour chart. If the rebound is blocked here, it’s a high-probability shorting point.

2. Wait-and-see Strategy

· Currently, the price in the $76,800 - $77,200 range is a downtrend continuation, and chasing shorts may encounter short-term rebounds. It’s recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait for a rebound to enter.

3. Alternative Strategy: Extreme case, go long (high risk)

· Entry point: $75,000 - $75,800 range
· Stop-loss: Below $74,500
· Logic: Only when the price falls into this strong support zone and shows clear volume-based reversal signals can a small position be attempted for a short-term rebound.

⚠️ Risk Reminder

· Avoid bottom-fishing: Before the price stabilizes above $78,000 - $78,500, any long positions are considered left-side trades with very high risk.
· Strict stop-loss: The current leveraged market is highly volatile; all trades must have stop-losses, and individual risk should be controlled within 2%.
The core view for today’s market is to mainly "short on rebounds," not to chase shorts immediately, and to firmly avoid bottom-fishing on the left side.

Currently, the market is dominated by macro pressure and panic sentiment, leading to a bearish trend, but short-term indicators are severely oversold, making direct shorting very risky.

📊 Core Trading Logic

· Macro (bearish): The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.13% (a new high since 2007), coupled with WTI crude oil rising to $107, and risk aversion is intense, with funds flowing out of Bitcoin.
· Capital (bearish): Last week, Bitcoin ETF net outflows were about 13k BTC, with no institutional buying; in the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $660 million, 89% of which were longs, severely damaging bullish momentum.
· Technical (bearish): The price has broken below the key support of $77k, with the 4-hour moving averages in a bearish alignment, and a "death cross" confirmed. However, the 1-hour RSI has fallen to 20-22 (extreme oversold), indicating a short-term rebound correction is needed. #btc $btc