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⚠️ This year, AI is so impressive, will there still be a May curse in the U.S. stock market?
Apart from midterm election years, from a different perspective, looking at the S&P 500 index over different time spans, the "weak" label for May is somewhat justified—
Last 10 years (2016–2025): average gain/loss about +0.2%, probability of increase 55%, overall slightly bullish. This is thanks to the recent long bull run in tech stocks offsetting seasonal weakness.
Last 20 years (2006–2025): average gain/loss -0.1%, probability of increase 50%, close to the annual average.
Last 30 years (1996–2025): average gain/loss -0.2%, probability of increase 48%, slightly weak.
Last 100 years (1926–2025): average gain/loss -0.3%, probability of increase 47%, historically May is indeed one of the months with the worst performance of the year.
Chart from @PANews