After the sharp decline, take a rational look at the three core indicators of “bottom fishing”

The correction on May 18 made many investors who had just begun to feel hope uneasy. BTC fell below $77,000, ETH lost the $2,200 level, and 150,000 traders were liquidated across the entire network—data that is truly shocking. But every drop comes with the soul-searching question: is it bottom fishing or fleeing? I believe that instead of impulsively entering based on instinct, it’s better to calmly observe three core indicators.

First, on-chain activity and changes in whale addresses. True bottoms are often accompanied by steady accumulation by long-term holders, not panic selling. We can observe over the past 24 hours whether the number of addresses holding 100+ BTC is increasing or decreasing. If whales are buying despite the unfavorable conditions, then the meaning of “a human-led cleansing” during this sell-off becomes even stronger.

Second, the funding rate returning to neutrality. Before the decline, market sentiment was overly optimistic, and the funding rate stayed positive and elevated for a long time. After this round of liquidations involving 150,000 traders, leverage has been largely wiped out, and the funding rate has returned to a level close to zero or even negative. This is one of the signs of a healthy correction—once the burden is shed and the weight is lightened, it becomes possible to start a new trend.

Third, the results of testing key support levels. $77,000 is BTC’s important psychological threshold from the past two months. Whether it can reclaim and hold $78,000 within the next 48 hours will determine whether it’s a rebound in the short term or continued bottom-finding. If it keeps probing down to $75,000 multiple times without breaking, then the probability of a medium-term bottom forming will increase significantly.

As for geopolitical risk: news that the US might restart, or restart again, military actions against Iran would indeed suppress risk-asset sentiment. But the performance of the crypto market over the past two years shows that at the beginning of geopolitical conflicts, there are often short-term declines; afterward, Bitcoin may be viewed by some funds as “digital gold,” triggering safe-haven buying. The real risk is not the conflict itself, but the liquidity-tightening expectations that the conflict brings about.

My trading approach: don’t go all-in in one shot. Place staggered buy orders for BTC in the $75,000–$77,000 range—add to your position every time it drops by 3%, while keeping your position size within 30% of total funds. Also, watch for resilient projects in the DeFi and SocialFi sectors; they can stand firm against the trend, indicating an independent narrative logic. If the overall market stabilizes later, these tracks could become the vanguard of the rebound. Remember: bottom fishing is about trying and learning, not gambling.
#加密市場下跌15萬人爆倉
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