CLARITY Act 2026 Legislative Possibility Analysis

Probability assessment: 50%–70%

On May 14th, the Senate Banking Committee passed the CLARITY Act with a bipartisan vote of 15:9, marking a historic breakthrough in a decade-long regulatory deadlock. However, the legislative process remains lengthy: the bill needs to be merged with the Agriculture Committee version, then voted on by the full Senate (requiring 60 votes), coordinated with the House of Representatives, and signed by the President.

The current biggest obstacle is the 60-vote threshold. The 53 Republican seats are expected to support all, with 2 Democratic members confirmed to cross party lines, but at least 7 Democrats still need to join for passage. Senator Gallego explicitly stated that if the final version does not include a moral conduct clause, he will not support it in the full chamber vote. The conflict of interest clause remains unresolved, and banking groups are still firmly opposed to stablecoin yield arrangements. Additionally, with the midterm elections in November approaching, if the House changes hands, the pro-crypto political foundation could collapse.

The prediction market Polymarket currently shows about a 68% chance of passage, while TD Cowen only gives a cautious estimate of 40%. Considering all factors, the probability of passing in 2026 is between 50% and 70%.

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Trading Strategies and Perspectives

In the short term, the market has largely digested the news of the committee vote. The key is the full Senate voting schedule—if the bill enters full debate before Memorial Day recess, market sentiment could be further boosted.

In the medium term, two major structural opportunities can be monitored: first, if the bill passes, it will clarify the regulatory division between SEC and CFTC, ending the uncertainty of "enforcement instead of legislation," potentially mobilizing trillions of dollars in institutional capital; second, the stablecoin compromise plan has been implemented—banning passive interest earning but retaining on-chain activity rewards, eliminating the biggest regulatory risks for core targets like Coinbase and Circle.

For risk hedging, political game-playing before the Senate vote is highly uncertain. It is advisable to retain some short positions to hedge against the risk of moral clause negotiations breaking down.

In the medium to long term, even if the legislation passes smoothly this summer, the crypto industry may not operate under the new regulatory framework until 2027. The insufficient staffing of the CFTC also constrains enforcement capacity, creating a time lag for benefits to materialize. A layered strategy of "short-term caution, medium-term allocation, and long-term waiting for implementation" is recommended. #Polymarket每日热点