I. Current Market Overview

On May 18th, during the Asian market session, spot gold fell below the $4,500 per ounce mark for the first time since late March, with the lowest point touching $4,484.788, a decline of up to 1.2%. Regarding jewelry, Lao Feng Xiang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,383 yuan per gram, down 15 yuan from the previous day.

This round of decline is a concentrated release of previous bearish factors. Last Friday, spot gold dropped 2.45% to $4,538, with a weekly decline of 3.75%.

---

II. Summary of Institutional Forecasts: Long-term Bullish Consensus

Investment banks generally lean towards a cautious bullish outlook

Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $5,400 by the end of 2026, based on the core logic of "central bank gold purchases + rate cut expectations"; Bank of America remains the most optimistic, expecting $6,000 by year-end, believing that "rising global debt + high fiscal deficits" will continue to support gold prices; JPMorgan has lowered its second-half target from $5,700 to $5,200; Citibank considers about half of the "panic factors" in gold prices to be temporary, and once geopolitical tensions ease, gold may face a correction.

Consensus expectations for 2026

From institutional forecasts, the consensus is that gold prices will fluctuate at high levels with an upward bias, with an average annual expectation of $4,800–$5,200, and a year-end target of $5,400–$5,800. In optimistic scenarios, prices could even reach $6,000–$6,500.

---

III. Key Technical Levels

This round of correction has seen a maximum decline of over $380 from the high of $3,500. In the short term, support levels are sequentially at $3,150 and $3,120 (the upward trendline since the beginning of the year). If these are broken, the next target is in the $3,060–$3,100 range; resistance levels are at $3,250 (50-day moving average) and around $3,295.

---

IV. My Trading Framework and Conclusions

Short-term (remaining May): Range-bound bottom-finding, cautious about rebounds. The first target for correction is around $3,120–$3,100, and the second target is near $2,960–$3,000. Focus on the strong support at $3,120; a breakout above $3,250 is needed to confirm short-term stabilization.

Medium-term (within the year): Corrections are opportunities for phased accumulation. The trend of central bank gold purchases (global net purchases of 244 tons in Q1 2025), dollar credit risks, and Fed rate cut expectations in the second half of the year form the medium- to long-term support. Operationally, a combined long-short strategy is recommended: core positions held long-term, satellite positions used for high-low trading based on volatility, with strict stop-losses. Ordinary investors should limit gold to within 5% of their investment portfolio as a hedge tool.

---

#Polymarket每日热点