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Rarely accurate this time! Tom Lee’s New Year script “Worse up, market down” has been proven correct for half of the outcomes.
Mars Finance News: On May 15, Powell’s term as Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve officially came to an end. The day before, the U.S. Senate narrowly approved Waller to serve as Federal Reserve Chair by a vote of 54 in favor and 45 against.
What’s even more intriguing is that, on the very day Waller took office, the mid-term uptrend in both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin also came to a stop. After the S&P 500 index hit a peak at 7,501 points on May 14, it quickly fell back; after Bitcoin failed to break through $82,000 on the 15th, it turned downward and in recent days has repeatedly accelerated its sell-off, currently barely holding the $77,000 level.
Although Tom Lee—who has been chairman of BitMine—has been heavily mocked for repeatedly taking a “mindlessly bullish” stance on cryptocurrencies, the “Wall Street wizard” script he laid out earlier this year has already come true for more than half. On January 8, Tom Lee predicted in an interview with CNBC that 2026 would be a year of “joy, depression, and rally” (joy, depression, and a renewed rise), with a trajectory similar to 2025. He said that at some point, the market would make people feel like it had “entered a bear market,” but then there would be a strong rebound; the year would ultimately end bullishly, and he expects the S&P 500 index to potentially reach 7,700 points by the end of 2026.
He specifically mentioned that in the initial period of the new Fed Chair’s tenure, the market may see a 15% to 20% pullback when facing a “test,” especially in the second half of the year. But this is not the end of the bull market—rather, it is an important buying opportunity (buying opportunity).