‍#Polymarket每日热点

Last weekend, news from the United States that it will restart military strikes against Iran, layered on top of the theme that Fed Chair Powell is taking office, intensified expectations for rate hikes and dealt a severe blow to gold. Gold plunged more than 5% in a single week, while silver fell even more—down 10%. Looking ahead to May, I believe gold will stop falling and rebound. For May’s gold (XAUUSD), how high can it go? I’m betting on $4600, with the following analysis:

From a technical perspective, gold has broken below short-term moving-average support. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross, and bearish forces are in the lead. A continued decline in the short term may be unavoidable. However, there is a significant divergence between the 7-day moving average and the 200-day moving average, suggesting that the short term is severely oversold. After the sharp selloff in early trading, the RSI indicator briefly entered oversold territory (below 30). It is now in a technical rebound phase following the oversold conditions. From the daily timeframe, there is momentum that suggests a rebound could develop.

From the news perspective, although there is a possibility that the US and Iran could clash again, it is important to note that the recent rhythm on both sides has been “fighting and talking.” Therefore, it is not out of the question that, after small-scale skirmishes, both sides may sit down again for negotiations. If that happens, oil prices would likely fall, weakening inflation expectations, and gold would then be poised to rebound. In addition, the long-term logic that global central banks are continuously buying gold to provide support has not been broken. The East Asia Central Bank increased its holdings by 260,000 ounces in April, marking the 18th consecutive month of net buying.

The key technical levels to watch next are:

‌Primary support: $4500 (psychological and chart level)

This is the “life and death line” that has been tested multiple times throughout 2026. Once it is effectively broken on the daily or weekly timeframe, downside room will open up.

‌Second support: $4480 and $4380

The former is today’s intraday low, while the latter is the strong support bottom on the monthly chart. If the geopolitical situation does not deteriorate further and rate-cut expectations have been fully priced in, the $4380–$4400 zone is expected to attract a large amount of buying interest.

‌Resistance levels overhead: $4600 and $4655

For the gold price to turn strongly bullish, it first needs to clear the hourly supply-overhang area at $4600. The bigger test is at the $4655 level, the 100-day moving average. If news of talks between the US and Iran comes through, the price will likely challenge this level again.