‍#TradFi交易分享挑战

‍#Polymarket每日热点

Last weekend, news that the United States would restart military strikes against Iran—combined with Wash’s appointment and the Fed’s hawkish stance lifting expectations for further rate hikes—delivered a severe blow to gold. Gold plunged by more than 5% over the week, while silver fell even more, down 10%. Looking ahead to May, I believe gold will stop falling and rebound. For May gold (XAUUSD), how high can it go? I’m betting on $4,600—analysis follows:

From a technical perspective, gold has already fallen below short-term moving average support. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross, with bearish momentum taking the upper hand. Continued selling in the short term seems all but inevitable, but the divergence between the 7-day moving average and the 200-day moving average is quite large, indicating severe short-term overselling. After an early-session sharp selloff, the RSI indicator briefly entered the oversold zone (below 30). It is now in a technical rebound phase following oversold conditions. From the daily time frame, there is rebound momentum in price.

From a news perspective, although there is a possibility of renewed conflict between the US and Iran, it’s important to note that the recent pattern on both sides has been “fight and talk.” Therefore, it’s not out of the question that after a small-scale clash, both sides may sit down for negotiations again. If that happens, oil prices would likely fall, weakening inflation expectations—and gold would see a rebound. In addition, the long-term logic behind global central banks continuously buying gold to support a bullish strategy has not been broken. The Bank of East Asia increased its holdings by 260,000 ounces in April, maintaining an 18-month streak of net purchases.

Key technical levels to watch next:

‌First support: $4,500 (psychological and chart formation level)‌

This is the “life-and-death line” tested multiple times in 2026. Once it is effectively broken on the daily or weekly chart, downside room will be opened up.

‌Second support: $4,480 and $4,380‌

The former is today’s intraday low, and the latter is a strong support base at the monthly-chart level. If the geopolitical situation does not deteriorate further, and before rate-cut expectations are fully priced in, the $4,380–$4,400 area is expected to attract substantial buying interest.

‌Resistance levels above: $4,600 and $4,655‌

If gold is to turn strong, it first needs to clear the $4,600 hourly chart supply/overhang zone. The bigger test is at the $4,655 100-day moving average. If the US and Iran bring news of talks, the price will likely challenge this level again.$AUDUSD $USDJPY $JPN225