#Polymarket每日热点 Gold Market Sudden Change on May 18! Gold Price Plummets | Future 15-Day Gold Trend Analysis

The international gold price in London is currently quoted at $4,500.18 per ounce. Last Friday, gold dropped $113.8 in a single day, breaking through the strong support at $4,600, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly two years. This is not merely a technical correction but a restructuring of the gold valuation system triggered by a historic collapse in the global bond market.
Gold News Analysis
Core cause of the plunge: The collective surge in risk-free yields worldwide. The fundamental driver of this decline is the global long-term government bond yields collectively breaking historical extremes: the US 30-year Treasury yield at 5.12% (highest since 2007), Japan’s 30-year yield surpassing 4% (a record), and the UK 30-year at 5.85% (the highest this century). The opportunity cost of holding gold is rising exponentially, fundamentally shaking the basis of gold’s valuation. Coupled with the US April CPI year-over-year at 3.8%, exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve’s probability of rate hikes this year has surged to 50%. Even with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices higher, the safe-haven attribute of gold is completely suppressed by rising interest rates, resulting in an extreme scenario of "safe-haven not rising but falling."
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily confirmation of a reversal at high levels: The 4773 level has formed three peaks, creating a standard double top. The neckline at 4650 was effectively broken, with the measured decline target at 4527 dollars, precisely matching yesterday’s low; the 5/10-day moving average has formed a death cross, exerting comprehensive pressure; the MACD red bars have shrunk for 8 days and turned green, with a bearish crossover diverging downward at high levels; KDJ rapidly declines from overbought territory, with J at 12.3 entering oversold but no bottom divergence; RSI has fallen back to 31; Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price touching the lower band at $4,508 support.
On the 4-hour chart, three key supports have been broken consecutively, with the rebound peaking at only $4,580, unable to break the 10-day moving average. RSI remains below 30, and the MACD green bars continue to enlarge; on the hourly chart, prices are oscillating narrowly at low levels, with a low-level golden cross in KDJ but weak upward momentum, cautioning against a rebound followed by further breakdown.
Hourly level: Currently trading in a narrow range of 4,480-4,510 dollars, with a low-level golden cross in KDJ but weak upward momentum. Any rebound will face strong selling pressure; caution is advised for a technical rebound that could lead to further breakdown.
Gold Trading Strategy and Future 15-Day Outlook:
In the short term, focus on shorting during rebounds, with occasional buying on dips.
Enter in batches around the 4,530-4,535 zone, with a stop-loss at 4,545. Watch for support at 4,480 and 4,450; if broken, target 4,420.
Overall, the gold market will remain predominantly bearish over the next 15 days, with a mid-term downtrend difficult to reverse. Short-term operations should mainly involve shorting rebounds, with strong resistance at 4,550-4,565 and the first support at the previous dense trading zone around 4,450.
If 4,450 is effectively broken, further declines to the 4,400-4,350 range are expected; if support at 4,450 holds, a technical rebound of $100-150 may occur, but the overall trend will continue downward after the rebound.
【Important Compliance Statement】This article is for personal market information and trend review only, not investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously. $XAUUSD