#Polymarket每日热点 May 18th Gold Market Sudden Change! Gold Price Plummets | Future 15-Day Gold Trend Analysis

The international gold price in London is currently quoted at $4,500.18 per ounce. Last Friday, gold dropped $113.8 in a single day, breaking through the strong support at 4,600, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly two years. This is not merely a technical correction but a restructuring of the gold valuation system triggered by a historic collapse in the global bond market.
Gold News Analysis
Core Cause of the Plunge: The collective surge in risk-free yields worldwide. The fundamental driver of this decline is the global long-term government bond yields breaking historical records: the US 30-year Treasury yield at 5.12% (highest since 2007), Japan’s 30-year yield surpassing 4% (a record), and the UK 30-year yield reaching 5.85% (the highest this century). The opportunity cost of holding gold is rising exponentially, fundamentally shaking the valuation basis of gold. Coupled with the US April CPI year-over-year at 3.8%, exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve’s probability of rate hikes this year has surged to 50%. Even with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices higher, the safe-haven attribute of gold is completely suppressed by rising interest rates, resulting in an extreme scenario of "safe-haven not rising but falling."
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Confirming High-Level Reversal: The 4773 level has been tested three times, forming a standard double top. The neckline at 4650 was effectively broken, with the measured decline target at 4527 dollars, precisely matching yesterday’s low; the 5/10-day moving average death cross has formed a comprehensive suppression; MACD’s red bars have shrunk for 8 days then turned green, with a death cross diverging downward at high levels; KDJ rapidly declines from overbought territory, with J at 12.3 entering oversold but no bottom divergence; RSI has fallen to 31; Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price touching the lower band at 4508 dollars as support.
On the 4-hour chart, three key supports have been broken consecutively, with a rebound only reaching 4580 dollars without breaking the 10-day moving average. RSI is below 30, and MACD’s green bars continue to enlarge; on the hourly chart, prices are oscillating narrowly at low levels, with KDJ forming a golden cross but with weak upward momentum, cautioning against a rebound followed by a further breakdown. Currently, on the hourly chart: the price is oscillating narrowly in the 4480-4510 range, with KDJ forming a golden cross but with weak upward momentum. Any rebound will face strong selling pressure; beware of a technical rebound followed by a further breakdown.
Gold Trading Strategy and Future 15-Day Outlook:
In the short term, focus on shorting rebounds, with dips used to buy.
Enter in batches around 4530-4535, with a stop-loss at 4545. Watch for support at 4480 and 4450; if broken, target 4420.
Overall, the gold market will remain predominantly bearish over the next 15 days, with a mid-term downtrend difficult to reverse. Short-term operations should focus on shorting rebounds, with strong resistance at 4550-4565 and the first support at the previous dense trading zone around 4450.
If 4450 is effectively broken, further declines to the 4400-4350 range are expected; if support at 4450 holds, a technical rebound of 100-150 dollars may occur, but the overall trend will continue downward afterward.
【Important Compliance Statement】This article is for personal market information, learning, and market review purposes only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously. $XAUUSD