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After the market fell below 80k, the daily-chart trend has shown a steady decline. At present, the overall market has not been able to rebound effectively and is still in a downtrend, causing the market to fall into panic again. The current Fear and Greed Index is 27. Therefore, in the short term, we need to focus on where the market will drop to before it bottoms out. The same is true for most altcoins. Personally, I believe that the main reason the market pulls back more is the influence of US-Iran news. In addition, within the market’s daily-chart structure, the short-term upward trend has broken through the accelerated downside room.
As for BTC’s weekly-chart trend, the market has already fallen into range-bound consolidation. Therefore, this week the overall market will fluctuate in the 73,000–80,000 range, with an overall bearish bias. ETH has been relatively weak during this period and has remained in a cyclical range-bound oscillation. When the market rises, ETH has not been able to keep up or make up the rally; when the market falls, ETH’s pullback is stronger. Therefore, this week ETH will fluctuate in the 1,950–2,250 range. On the SOL daily chart, it is not clearly showing an inverted V shape, while on the weekly chart it remains mainly in range-bound consolidation. This week, SOL’s overall fluctuation range is roughly 77–89. If you switch ETH and SOL to the monthly chart, it will be even more obvious that they are in a choppy/oscillating phase.
In the most recent 5 trading days, ETF institutional net outflows were approximately $345 million. This is enough to show that institutional funds are building positions in the short term to hedge against risk. The institutional funds’ outflows are also one of the factors affecting the market, so it is still necessary to continue closely monitoring where institutional funds go next.
Today, watch BTC around 75,000 on the downside; watch ETH around 2,050 on the downside; and watch SOL around 82 on the downside.
Today’s contract strategy:
BTC: 77,500 — short either there or on rallies; take profit at 75,000
ETH: 2130 — short either there or on rallies; take profit at 2060
SOL: 85.5 — short either there or on rallies; take profit at 82.5