One sentence conclusion: Daily high-level pullback, 4-hour bearish dominance, 78,500 is the short-term support/resistance boundary; rebound pressure remains mainly bearish, breaking below 77,000 accelerates downward to 75,000.
1. Current Price and Key Levels

• Current price: 78,100 USD (24h -1.2%, intraday 77,500–78,800)

• Core support (from near to far)

1. 77,500–77,000: Intraday low + dense buy zone

2. 76,500–76,000: 4-hour Bollinger lower band + last week’s low

3. 75,000 (strong support): Mid-term key psychological level

• Core resistance (from near to far)

1. 78,500–79,000: 4-hour moving average cluster + intraday strong resistance

2. 80,000–80,500: Weekly oscillation upper boundary

3. 82,000 (strong resistance): May high + previous double top zone
2. Cycle Structure (D1 + H4)

1) Daily (D1)

• Price breaks below EMA15 (78,800), short-term weakening; EMA30/60 (77,200/76,800) provide support

• MACD: Bearish crossover above zero line, red bars turn green, bullish momentum diminishes

• RSI(14): 51 → 47, neutral leaning bearish, not oversold

• Bollinger Bands: Middle band flat, lower band rising, range 75,700–82,900

• Conclusion: High-level correction within an uptrend, no reversal but weakening

2) 4-hour (H4, key)

• Price below EMA15/30, moving averages in bearish alignment, rebound suppressed

• MACD: below zero, increasing green bars, bearish momentum dominant

• RSI(14): 43, weak, not oversold

• Bollinger Bands: opening downward, range 76,700–81,700, price along lower band

• Conclusion: Weak oscillation, rebound under pressure, 78,500 determines short-term strength or weakness
3. Funds and Sentiment

• Volume: 24h shrunk to average 43%, low volatility, cautious sentiment

• Open Interest (OI): stable, no large liquidation, bulls and bears in stalemate

• ETF Funds: net outflow of 13,000 BTC last week, institutional short-term bearish

• Macro correlation: Fed rate hike expectations rising, risk assets under pressure
4. Intraday Trading Strategy (5.18)

Main Strategy: Short on rebound (preferably)

• Entry: Short gradually on resistance at 78,300–78,800

• Stop-loss: 79,300 (break above 4-hour MA cluster)

• Targets: 77,500 → 77,000 → 76,500

Alternative Strategy: Long at low levels (defensive)

• Entry: Long on stabilization at 77,000–76,500 after dip

• Stop-loss: 76,000

• Targets: 78,000 → 78,500

Wait-and-see Strategy

• When narrow range at 77,500–78,500, do not operate, wait for valid breakout
5. Key Risk Alerts

• Break above: Volume breakout above 79,300 and stabilization, bearish strategy invalidated, shift to sideways or bullish

• Break below: Effective drop below 76,000, opening downside space to 75,000

• Macro events: Fed officials’ speeches, inflation data may trigger large volatility

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