I’ve just noticed an interesting movement in the yen value trend over the past few months—especially when compared with the Thai baht—which is a topic that regional investors need to closely watch.

The Japanese yen is a currency with very high trading volume, ranking among the top 5 in the foreign exchange market. Not only because Japan is the 5th largest economy in the world, but also because the yen is considered a safe-haven asset that investors worldwide turn to when markets face risks.

The yen trend in 2023 shows a fairly complex picture. The JPY/THB pair trades at around 0.2176 baht per yen, which is slightly higher than the multi-decade support level of 0.2150. Over the past ten years, the yen has depreciated by more than 30%, especially since 2020.

What I’ve observed is that the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is a key factor driving the yen trend in 2023. Japan remains cautious about easing policy even though inflation is between 2.5% and 3.5%, which is higher than the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. In contrast, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have begun easing policy decisively. This divergence has kept the yen under downward pressure.

Japan’s policy interest rate is still -0.1%, and yield curve control (YCC) remains in place. However, when the Bank of Japan reduced bond purchases from 9 trillion yen to 7.5 trillion yen in Q2 2025, this sign prompted a slight recovery in the yen.

As for the Thai currency, it remains relatively stable, supported by a rebound in tourism, strong regional trade, and foreign capital inflows—factors that continue to weigh on the yen-to-baht exchange rate.

Looking at the yen outlook toward the end of 2025, there is a possibility that the yen could rebound to the range of 0.2250 to 0.2300 if the Bank of Japan exits YCC decisively and inflation continues to stay high. However, if no prudent actions are taken, the yen may return to testing new lows.

For 2026, which we are in now, what needs to be watched is changes in global monetary policy. International interest-rate differentials will play an important role. If the Fed continues to cut rates while Japan gradually tightens its policy, this divergence could support an appreciation of the yen.

Based on long-term analysis, the JPY/THB exchange rate has been in a continuing downtrend since 2012, after falling below 0.2400 in 2023. This pair has tried to rebound but hasn’t been able to sustain upward momentum. From 2024 to the present, it has mostly traded between 0.2150 and 0.2250.

Signals from the long-term chart suggest a potential bottoming pattern around 0.2150. If this support level holds and macroeconomic conditions align, the yen could gradually strengthen to 0.2300 to 0.2400 in 2026.

However, if the current support base cannot be maintained, the yen may test new lows below 0.2100—especially if Japan continues to run an easing policy while Thailand benefits from strong growth.

Another factor to track is the repatriation of Japanese investors’ funds. Amid uncertainty in emerging markets, increased repatriation of funds often helps support the yen. In addition, geopolitical conflicts in Asia may increase demand for the yen as a regional safe-haven asset.

From a technical indicator perspective, among the 13 key indicators analyzed for the JPY/THB pair, 7 indicate sell, 1 indicates sell, and 5 are neutral. The moving averages are evenly split: 6 indicate sell and 6 indicate buy, suggesting there is no clear directional trend in the short-term timeframe.

What’s interesting is that although technical indicators lean bearish, long-term support levels may signal a potential reversal if market sentiment changes.

In summary, the outlook for the yen in 2026 depends mostly on decisions by the Bank of Japan. 2025 has become a major turning point, and 2026 will be the year to observe how Japan proceeds. Traders and investors interested in this pair should closely monitor Japan’s policy signals, because even small policy changes could significantly impact the exchange rate.