Market Outlook

After breaking below 785, the pullback expanded, approaching the first support at 76,700
After rebounding into the 82 range from Thursday night to early Friday morning, we still believe there is a chance to reach around 83, but things went the other way and the market turned lower. After the sharp drop to the 785 range on Friday, we didn’t add longs; it was mainly because I was drinking on Friday night and didn’t notice. But it’s a blessing in disguise (normally, I would have wanted to add longs again at the 785 range).
If a family member was holding a long position at 78,500, they should have already been stopped out by now.
After breaking below 78,500, the primary support below is at 76,700 (which has already been touched). However, I think this level will most likely not hold.
I think there is a relatively high probability of probing further downward, dropping below 76,000 and sweeping around 75,600, but it shouldn’t reach 75,000. If it breaks below 74,000, the bigger trend will turn bearish again.
As long as it doesn’t break below 74,000, there is still hope for a rebound and for making new highs. If it breaks below 74,000, any rebound can only be considered a bounce and can no longer be expected to lead to new highs.
At the beginning of last week, I thought there was a strong chance the market could reach 84—the bottom support/resistance swap zone of the consolidation range from last November to this January—but ultimately the market didn’t give the opportunity. The current hope is to find support above 75 and test upward again. If it breaks below 74,000, it may imply at least testing down to 69 and 65.
The current market decline is mainly due to the US stock market. You can see that US stocks started falling from 12:00 on the 15th, almost matching the high point of Bitcoin at 82,000 at 12:00 on Friday. Therefore, the end of the pullback may also be synchronized with the US stock market (if not later than the US stock market). Currently, the support levels for the US stock market are 7,310 (4H MA100) and 7,200-7,220 (4H Vegas). If US stocks can stop falling at these two levels, and Bitcoin also holds at key levels at the same time, the odds of the pullback ending will increase significantly.
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