When I see the gold price surge past $5,000 per ounce, I start to see persistent questions in investment groups: "Will gold go down again?" — and actually, this is the right question to ask right now.

What’s happening in 2026 isn’t just a normal price increase or typical FOMO. It’s a profound structural change in the global financial system. Central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold continuously for 15 years because they want to reduce dependence on the US dollar. Buying and selling gold from emerging market central banks like China, India, Brazil remains a key factor driving the price.

So, will gold go down again? The answer is "Maybe, but not a drop below the fair value or breaking the cycle." In January, when the Greenland crisis between the US and Europe occurred, gold soared to $5,600 — a signal that the market is pricing in increased geopolitical risk. Even as the situation moves toward compromise, investors clearly see that "uncertainty" has become the new normal worldwide.

When I look at technical support and resistance levels, $4,680 to $4,750 seems like a good accumulation point if prices pull back. But the more important question is: will gold go down again? It depends on whether international tensions ease or escalate, and whether US public debt becomes problematic.

In Thailand, the gold bar price has risen to 70,000 baht, reflecting that the baht has strengthened to its strongest level in nearly five years. Why is this happening? Because Thai investors are selling gold for profit and exchanging foreign currency into baht. About 35% of foreign exchange trading volume in Thailand comes from gold transactions — that’s the "Gold-Baht Correlation" that the Bank of Thailand is trying to control.

The Bank of Thailand introduced new measures in 2026 — a daily trading cap of 50-100 million baht, reporting large transactions, and promoting dollar-denominated trading. This has led many investors to stop buying physical gold and switch to other financial products instead.

Major global financial institutions are continuously adjusting their price targets: Goldman Sachs says $5,400, J.P. Morgan says $5,055 on average, Bank of America says $6,000 — although there are dissenting voices like HSBC, which suggests $3,950. But the market consensus remains bullish.

If you ask whether gold will go down in the next few months? Maybe yes, but as a "temporary dip," not a total collapse. The overbought RSI signals a short-term profit-taking sell-off, but the market structure still supports higher prices. My advice is: if you haven’t invested yet, don’t buy at the top. Wait for a pullback before entering. If you already invested, hold on because this cycle isn’t over.

The biggest risk? It’s a strong global stock market rebound while interest rates remain high — that could cause investors to shift funds out of gold. But this doesn’t seem likely in the near term, as US public debt continues to rise and concerns over fiat currency devaluation persist.