Just now, I looked at Bitcoin’s performance since the Halving in 2024—and honestly, it’s more interesting than many people think. The price has risen from about 63,500 USD in April 2024 to just under 77,000 USD today. Not bad, but not the explosive growth seen after previous halvings.

What many people don’t understand: The Bitcoin Halving is actually quite elegantly designed. Every 210,000 blocks—so roughly every four years—the reward for miners is cut in half. In the last Halving in 2024, it fell from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. That sounds technical, but the key point is this: fewer new bitcoins in circulation means artificial scarcity. And scarcity usually pushes prices higher.

Historically, this has worked. After the first Halving in 2012, the price rose by over 8,700%. In 2016, it was 254% in the following year. In 2020, it was even 565%. This time, it’s a bit more moderate—around 36% in the year after the Halving in 2024. Why? Because the market is more mature now, and there are many more factors influencing the price.

The question everyone asks: What comes next? The next Bitcoin Halving is expected in April 2028. Until then, another 210,000 blocks must be mined. But here’s the catch—no one can predict the exact timing. Some analysts say 01 April 2028, while others say 14 April. It depends on how quickly the blocks are actually generated.

But what interests me more is: How does the current situation affect the Bitcoin price? Honestly, other factors now play a bigger role than the Halving itself. Macroeconomics is crucial—interest rates, inflation, and economic developments. And yes, even the political situation in the USA has an impact. The regulatory clarity we’re hoping to get in 2025 and 2026 could also be a major catalyst.

What’s interesting about the Bitcoin Halving in 2024 is this: it was foreseeable, but the market still didn’t price it in perfectly. This shows that Bitcoin still depends on many variables—not just technical scarcity.

For the Halving 2028 forecast, I’d say: keep an eye on it, but don’t base your decisions solely on that. Until then, the Bitcoin will be influenced by hundreds of other factors. History shows that halvings matter, but they’re not a guaranteed driver of price. Anyone who wants to stay involved long-term should focus on fundamental factors—adoption, regulation, and the macroeconomic environment.