Institution: The extent of global central banks' policy tightening may be quite limited

Mars Finance News, on May 17th, macro research firm TS Lombard stated that a aggressive tightening cycle is unlikely to occur. In the face of oil price shocks, the extent of global central bank policy tightening may be quite limited. In Europe, energy shocks have already been weighing on economic activity. The UK labor market has appeared unstable for some time, and European hiring sentiment has also become increasingly weak. In our view, the tightening measures by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this year will be below market expectations, and this possibility is currently underestimated. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement policy tightening in the near term, and even if it does, it will almost certainly have to wait until 2027. (Jin10)