I just checked the gold data for XAUUSD this morning. The price today is hovering around $4,578 per ounce, and it’s under heavy pressure. The key figures released last night show that the Fed’s meeting kept interest rates at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but what’s shocking is that there were 4 votes calling for the Fed to be even more stringent. This makes gold investors panic, because it means interest rates won’t be cut easily anytime soon.

Another factor that makes analyzing gold prices harder today is that Brent crude oil has surged above $117 per barrel after Trump confirmed that he will not lift the sanctions against Iran. There’s also news that the UAE is withdrawing from OPEC to remove its own oil production quota. This is a long game that requires careful monitoring. In the short term, expensive oil weighs on gold, but in the medium term, if the UAE floods the market with oil and reduces inflation, then the Fed will have room to cut rates—and that’s when gold can surge.

The most important figures tonight are Q1 GDP and Core PCE. If GDP comes in far below expectations, that signals economic slowdown, and gold could have a good chance to rise because the market will expect the Fed to cut interest rates. But if GDP stays strong and Core PCE refuses to come down, the Fed will have reason to keep rates high. At that point, gold will be sold off heavily.

From the RSI chart analysis, it has dropped to Oversold and has started to turn upward, indicating a possible short-term rebound. However, the main trend is still bearish; the price remains below all EMA lines. If it rebounds up to $4,602 and fails to break through, it will likely fall back toward support at $4,553. If it does break through, the next targets are $4,638 and $4,657.

For today’s gold price analysis, I think you should be careful about volatility because the GDP and Core PCE numbers will determine the direction. If you’re trading short-term, wait for the price to bounce up to $4,600 and then open a sell, placing your Stop Loss above $4,650. Or if you want to buy around Oversold, wait around $4,553 and take short-term profits at $4,605—but you must cut the loss immediately if it breaks below $4,545. Keep a close eye on the market tonight.