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I've just noticed that supply and demand are fundamental concepts essential for understanding why prices go up or down, whether we're talking about stocks, gold, energy, or even digital assets.
Basically, demand is the desire to buy, while supply is the desire to sell. When more people want to buy but there are few goods available, prices go up. Conversely, if there are many goods but no one is buying, prices go down. Demand has an inverse relationship with price: when prices are high, buying interest decreases because people feel it's more expensive.
This has two effects: income effect and substitution effect. For example, if prices drop, our money stretches further (increased liquidity), and people will choose this product over similar alternatives.
Supply works the opposite way. When prices are high, sellers are willing to sell more. When prices drop, sellers reduce their sales volume. Demand and supply work together, and the point where they meet is called "equilibrium," which is the price the market accepts.
Looking at the financial markets, when the economy is good, people want to invest more. Demand for stocks increases, and prices go up. Conversely, if bad news emerges, people start selling off, supply increases, and prices fall. Additionally, low interest rates cause investors to shift away from bonds and seek higher returns in the stock market.
An interesting case study is when the Strait of Hormuz was closed due to conflict in the Middle East. Oil supply decreased by about 20% globally, but demand remained the same. The result was a rapid surge in oil prices. This is a real-world example of a "Supply Shock."
In fundamental analysis, stock prices fluctuate based on earnings forecasts. If investors expect a company to grow, they are willing to buy more, sellers hold back, and prices rise. If a decline is expected, the opposite happens.
In technical trading, demand and supply are used through various tools, such as candlestick analysis. A green candle (closing price higher than opening) indicates buying strength, while a red candle (closing lower than opening) indicates selling strength. Support and resistance levels are determined using similar principles: support is where buying interest is waiting, and resistance is where selling interest is waiting.
A popular technique is the Demand Supply Zone, which looks for moments when price loses balance and searches for a new equilibrium. For example, a rapid price drop (Drop), followed by consolidation in a range (Base). When buying interest returns, the price rallies upward. Traders can buy when the price breaks above the upper boundary.
Conversely, if the price rises and then consolidates, and selling interest appears, the price may fall again. Traders can sell at the breakout below the lower boundary.
In summary, demand and supply are not difficult to understand, but they need to be applied to real market prices. The more you practice, the clearer the picture becomes of why prices move this way, and you'll be better at predicting future movements.