Recently, I've seen people connect the supply curve of stablecoins, ETF net inflows, and rumors of off-exchange funds, making it sound like flipping a switch will cause prices to rise.

In other words, correlation does not necessarily mean causation; sometimes it's just that everyone becomes more willing to gamble at the same time or more afraid of missing out.
The "money" that appears on the blockchain might just have changed hands, or even be part of a layered yield stacking strategy involving re-staking, where in the end, no one can tell who is buying from whom.
Anyway, I now treat data as a thermometer of sentiment, not a steering wheel for direction…
In a bear market, there are too many stories, and the most deceptive thing is the logic we tell ourselves to justify it.