I just reviewed some analyses on how the major stock markets worldwide performed during that critical period of changes in early 2024. There are interesting things worth remembering to understand how the market evolved afterward.

The stock market forecast for 2024 that many made at that time made quite a lot of sense when looking at the charts. New York had come off two brutal months of gains (October-November 2024 went from 14,660 to 16,900 points), so a correction was inevitable. The NYSE was approaching all-time highs that it hadn't touched since 2022, around 17,000 points. That generated quite a bit of uncertainty.

Something similar was happening in Frankfurt. The German stock market was at all-time highs but with downward-moving moving averages since mid-December. The selling volume was evident in the indicators. Europe was going through a tough time because, although the energy crisis had improved significantly after the Russia-Ukraine situation, inflation remained a concern to watch.

But the most interesting thing was what was happening in Asia. Shanghai looked completely different. It was well below its 2007 highs (around 3,000 points when it reached 6,000 in 2007), so technically everything indicated an upward period. The moving averages crossed positively on December 28, volumes were rising... The 2024 stock market forecast for China clearly pointed upward.

Tokyo was another story. Japan was dealing with a serious structural problem: debt exceeding 250% of GDP. The stock market had set highs around 33,000 points in June but had been stuck since then. The moving average crossovers looked weak, without the strength to break new highs.

The key to short-term investing at that time was understanding that each market had its own dynamics. You couldn't apply the same strategy to New York as to Shanghai. Technical analysis was essential: identifying trends, detecting support and resistance levels, reading volumes.

Some traders used leverage to maximize gains on small movements (because short-term changes are much more modest than long-term ones). Others preferred shorting to take advantage of frequent dips. And there were those who simply opted for professionally managed ETFs if they didn't have time to stay glued to the charts.

The 2024 stock market forecast circulating at that time also considered important macroeconomic factors: the U.S. presidential elections in November, political changes in Germany and Japan, the shift of economic power toward Asia. All of this influenced trends, either amplifying or softening them.

What many didn't expect was how relevant technical analysis would remain even after those first few months. Stock patterns are surprisingly consistent if you know how to read them. Mastery of these charts is what separates those who make money in short-term trading from those who just waste time (and money).