I noticed that gold is now declining near the $4,800 level, and the reason is very clear — the US dollar is rising strongly along with bond yields. The geopolitical scene is very complex right now between America and Iran, and there are peace talks that may or may not take place, with traders being very cautious about taking strong positions in these conditions.

The interesting thing is that the chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve could reach 45-50% by the end of the year, which should limit the dollar's strength in the long term. But currently, the rise in crude oil prices due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reviving inflation fears, which supports bond yields and puts pressure on gold, which does not pay interest.

From a technical perspective, gold is still above the 200 exponential moving average at $4,784, and the indicators are relatively neutral. I think it’s better to wait a bit before taking strong short positions — we need to see stronger consecutive sell signals around the $4,800 level first.