I noticed something important in the gold market these days - the precious metal is moving wildly. It started the year with a strong jump to $5,600 in January, but then collapsed in March by 11.8%, the worst monthly loss since 2008. Now in May, it’s trading around $4,700-$4,800. The big question everyone is asking: will the gold price go up or down from here?

Major institutions have differing forecasts noticeably. JPMorgan says it could reach $6,300 by the end of the year, and UBS raised its forecast to $6,200 with an upside scenario reaching $7,200 if geopolitical tensions worsen. But Goldman Sachs is more cautious at $5,400, and Morgan Stanley sees $4,600 as the baseline scenario. The numbers vary greatly, but the overall trend indicates that gold still has strong support.

The real driving factors are inflation, the dollar, and central banks. US inflation rose to 3.3% in March, and central banks are still buying heavily, with geopolitical tensions remaining high. All this supports gold as a safe haven. But if the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates again or some major conflicts end, the picture could change quickly.

In truth, whether gold prices will rise or fall depends on which factor dominates – will geopolitical risks and inflation be stronger, or will dollar strength and rising interest rates take over? A Reuters poll of 30 analysts raised the average forecast to $4,746 per ounce, the highest since 2012. This means the market remains relatively optimistic, but with more caution than the surge we saw in January.