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EVERY SINGLE MAJOR FINANCIAL BUBBLE IN MODERN HISTORY POPPED EXACTLY LIKE THIS.
Bond yields started rising sharply.
Markets ignored it.
Then the bubble broke.
That happened in:
• Japan 1989
• Dot-com 2000
• China 2007
And now the same setup is appearing again globally.
In Japan’s bubble, government bond yields surged about +230 basis points before the Nikkei later crashed more than 60%.
In the dot-com bubble, US Treasury yields surged about +260 basis points into 1999 as the Fed tightened policy.
Markets kept rallying anyway because investors believed the internet would change everything.
Then the Nasdaq collapsed 78%.
In China’s 2007 bubble, bond yields surged again before one of the sharpest equity crashes in the country’s modern history.
The pattern was always the same:
Easy money inflated the bubble.
Higher yields eventually killed it.
Now look at today.
The US 30-year Treasury yield is back around 5%, near the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis.
Germany’s 10-year yield is at the highest level since the euro-zone crisis.
UK bond yields are near 2008 highs.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield is now at the highest level in almost 30 years.
This is happening while:
• AI stocks dominate the market
• Stock concentration is above dot-com levels
• Valuations remain extremely high
• Government debt keeps exploding
• Inflation remains sticky
At the same time, investors can now earn around 4-5% from government bonds with almost no risk.
That is a major problem for highly valued assets.
Because the entire post-2020 rally was built on the idea that interest rates would stay low for years.
Cheap money pushed huge amounts of capital into:
• AI stocks
• Tech
• Crypto
• Private equity
• Real estate
Now the cost of money is resetting higher across the entire world at the same time.
And history shows that bubbles usually become unstable when that happens.
Markets are still acting like higher yields do not matter.
That is usually the stage where the real risk starts building underneath the surface.