I’ve been following XRP for a while now and I have to honestly say: The question of whether Ripple really has a future is much more complex than most think. The network itself is running damn well – there’s no debate about that. But with the token? That’s where it gets interesting.

Looking at the numbers, the picture is mixed. Last year, payments worth about $617 billion were processed on the XRP Ledger. Record-breaking. Over 300 financial institutions in more than 55 countries use RippleNet, and around 40 percent of them also use XRP as a bridge currency. That’s solid. The transactions per day are about 1.8 million, and fees are practically nonexistent. Active addresses hover around 135,000 daily.

But here’s the crux: Just because the network handles a lot of volume doesn’t automatically mean the token’s price will rise. Banks buy XRP, use it for transfers, and sell it immediately back into fiat currencies. It circulates quickly but is hardly held long-term. This is fundamentally different from Bitcoin, which benefits from scarcity. XRP, on the other hand, is mainly used as an infrastructure token.

What’s the current price situation? XRP is currently trading at about $1.41 – a decline of roughly 13 percent from earlier levels. The market capitalization is around $87 billion. That’s still impressive, but it also shows that much of the bullish expectation was already priced in. ETF fantasies, regulatory easing after the SEC settlement in 2025 – all of that is already reflected in the price.

For 2026, I see three realistic scenarios. In the pessimistic case, XRP could fall to $0.90 if market conditions cool down and demand lags behind the growing supply. That would be a decrease of about 36 percent from here. In the neutral scenario, XRP hovers around $2.00 – which would be an increase of roughly 42 percent and would mean the token can keep pace with inflation and moderate market growth. In the optimistic case, a price of $2.80 could be reached if institutional demand picks up and the crypto environment remains bullish. That’s about a 98 percent gain.

What worries me most, though: the constantly growing supply. Between 200 and 300 million new XRP are released from a escrow account every month. That’s about 4 to 5 percent more per year. If genuine demand doesn’t keep up with this pace, continuous selling pressure will build. And I see that as the main risk.

There are two arguments in favor of XRP: First, increasing tokenization and CBDC linkages. Projects with Taiwan’s Fubon Bank and partnerships in the Middle East are using RippleNet technology for cross-border payments. Second, the stable network usage. Over 60 institutions use the ODL system (On-Demand Liquidity), and the total volume through Ripple Payments exceeds $95 billion cumulatively.

But there are also two strong counterarguments. First: High network usage doesn’t automatically lead to higher prices. The token is a medium of transfer, not a store of value. And second: Stablecoins are eating into the payment use case. Why would a bank hold XRP when USDT or other stablecoins are available that are value-stable? Ripple is trying to address this with RLUSD, but the signal is clear: the market trend is toward stablecoins.

Honestly, XRP has an established role in cross-border payments, and the technology is robust. But the tokenomics are unfavorable, and competition is fierce. The return potential is limited. Investors should see XRP more as a long-term infrastructure investment, not a turbocharged yield asset.

The key question remains: Does Ripple have a future? Yes, the network will probably continue to be used. But will the token’s price sustainably rise? That depends on whether there’s real demand for XRP itself – not just for the infrastructure. Right now, I don’t see enough signs of that. For 2026, I’d be rather cautious and not expect too much.